Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/22/2024

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in an exciting interleague matchup at Citizens Bank Park on May 22, 2024. The Phillies, who are having a great season with a record of 35-14, will be the home team, while the Rangers, with a record of 24-25, are having an average season and will play as the away team.

In their last game on May 21, the Phillies faced the Rangers and emerged victorious with a score of 5-2. They were considered a big favorite to win, with a closing Moneyline price of -165 and an implied win probability of 61%. The Rangers, on the other hand, were the underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%.

Taijuan Walker is projected to start for the Phillies. He is a right-handed pitcher who has had a record of 3-0 this season with an ERA of 4.91, which is below average. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward. Walker is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, and striking out 3.8 batters.

The Rangers will counter with Dane Dunning, a right-handed pitcher who has started 7 games this season, with a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 4.10, which is above average. Like Walker, Dunning's peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. Dunning is projected to pitch an average of 4.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 3.8 batters.

The Phillies have the advantage in terms of their offense, as they rank as the 5th best in MLB this season. Their best hitter, Bryce Harper, has been in great form, recording 30 runs, 36 RBIs, and 11 home runs with a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .924. The Rangers' offense, though not as strong, ranks 12th in MLB. Marcus Semien has been their standout hitter, with 35 runs, 34 RBIs, and 9 home runs, batting .268 with an OPS of .780.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies have a high implied team total of 5.02 runs, while the Rangers have a slightly lower implied team total of 4.48 runs. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Phillies to score 5.17 runs on average in this game, while the Rangers are projected to score 4.94 runs.

With a higher projected win probability of 55% according to THE BAT X, the Phillies are favored to win this close game against the Rangers, who have a projected win probability of 45%. However, betting markets also indicate a close contest, with the Phillies holding a moneyline of -135 and the Rangers at +115.

Given Taijuan Walker's tendency to give up flyballs and the Rangers' powerful offense, the long ball could be a factor in this game. However, Walker's low-walk rate could neutralize the Rangers' patient approach at the plate. The Game Total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating an expectation for a high-scoring game.

As the game unfolds, it will be interesting to see if the Phillies can continue their strong season or if the Rangers can pull off an upset on the road. Both teams will look to their pitching staffs to deliver solid performances and their hitters to come through in crucial moments. Ultimately, the outcome of this game will have implications for both teams' standings and playoff aspirations.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Dane Dunning must realize this, because he has used his secondary pitches a lot this year: 62.3% of the time, grading out in the 86th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Corey Seager has been unlucky this year, putting up a .306 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .369 — a .063 gap.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Among all starters, Taijuan Walker's fastball spin rate of 2112.1 rpm grades out in the 19th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bryson Stott is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Philadelphia Phillies offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 43 games (+17.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.96 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.09

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.