Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/11/2024

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • James Paxton - Dodgers

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers (41-26) are set to host the Texas Rangers (31-34) at Dodger Stadium on June 11, 2024. The Dodgers are having a stellar season, sitting near the top of the standings, while the Rangers are struggling to stay afloat with a sub-.500 record. This interleague matchup opens the series between these two teams, and all eyes will be on the pitching duel.

James Paxton takes the mound for the Dodgers, boasting a 5-1 record but with numbers that suggest he's been rather fortunate. His 4.19 ERA and 5.38 xFIP indicate that regression might be on the horizon. Paxton has only averaged 3.4 innings per start and is projected to allow 2.0 earned runs today, which isn't promising. Meanwhile, Jon Gray, the Rangers' starter, has been solid with a 2.21 ERA, although his 3.55 xFIP suggests some luck has played a role. Gray's projections (4.2 innings, 2.3 earned runs) also point to potential struggles against a potent Dodgers lineup.

The Dodgers' offense is an absolute juggernaut this season, ranked 1st overall and filled with both average and power. They rank 4th in team batting average and 3rd in home runs, making them a nightmare for opposing pitchers. On the other hand, the Rangers' offense is middling at best, ranking 16th overall and 27th in stolen bases, which limits their ability to manufacture runs.

Teoscar Hernandez has been a bright spot for the Dodgers over the last week, hitting .360 with 4 home runs and a 1.389 OPS. In contrast, Josh H. Smith has been the Rangers' standout, hitting .353 with a 1.064 OPS.

With the Dodgers’ offensive firepower and bullpen advantage, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup despite Paxton's struggles. Given the Rangers' below-average season and Gray’s potential regression, the Dodgers are well-positioned to take the series opener.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray has gone to his slider 5.1% more often this year (44.9%) than he did last season (39.8%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Josh Smith is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

James Paxton's 2102-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a big 106-rpm decrease from last season's 2208-rpm figure.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jason Heyward pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.25 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+15.15 Units / 33% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.86 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.21

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