Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 7/8/2024

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 8, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • Davis Daniel - Angels

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium on July 8, 2024, in the first game of a series between these American League West rivals. The Angels, struggling with a 37-52 record, are having a terrible season, while the Rangers, sitting at 42-48, are performing below average.

On the mound, the Angels will start right-hander Davis Daniel, who has a 1-1 record and an impressive 2.70 ERA through two starts this season. However, his 3.37 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate and may regress. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Daniel to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, striking out 4.3 batters, and giving up 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks on average. Despite his excellent ERA, Daniel's projections indicate he could struggle against the Rangers' lineup.

Opposing him will be Jon Gray for the Rangers. Gray has a 3-4 record and a solid 3.92 ERA over 15 starts. However, his 4.63 xERA suggests he's also been lucky. Projections have Gray pitching 5.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 5.4 batters, and giving up 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks on average.

Offensively, the Angels rank 17th in MLB, with a notable 14th in team home runs and 8th in stolen bases. However, their 20th rank in team batting average highlights their inconsistency at the plate. For the Rangers, their offense ranks 21st overall, with middling ranks in team batting average (18th) and home runs (19th), and a poor 21st in stolen bases.

The Angels' bullpen is the worst in MLB, ranking 30th, while the Rangers' bullpen is average at 17th. This disparity could be crucial late in the game, especially given the Angels' struggles this season.

Logan O'Hoppe has been the Angels' best hitter over the last week, batting .278 with five hits in five games. Meanwhile, Corey Seager has been on fire for the Rangers, hitting .421 with eight hits, five runs, six RBIs, and one home run in his last five games.

With a game total of 8.5 runs, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Angels are underdogs at +120, with an implied win probability of 44%. The Angels' implied team total is 3.96 runs, while the Rangers' is 4.54 runs. Given the Angels' bullpen woes and the Rangers' more balanced attack, the odds favor Texas in this matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing bats in this matchup... and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Corey Seager may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Texas Rangers projected offense projects as the 3rd-strongest of the day in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Out of all starters, Davis Daniel's fastball spin rate of 2143 rpm is in the 25th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.302) suggests that Brandon Drury has had some very poor luck this year with his .215 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+16.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 29 games (+20.50 Units / 71% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.2 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.61

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