Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Preview – 7/10/2024

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels gear up for the third game of their series on July 10, 2024, at Angel Stadium, both teams look to improve on their subpar seasons. The Angels, struggling with a 37-53 record, find themselves in the basement of the American League West. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit slightly better at 43-48 but are still having a below-average season.

Today's matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Griffin Canning for the Angels and Michael Lorenzen for the Rangers. Neither has been particularly impressive this season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Canning is ranked as the 235th best starting pitcher in MLB, putting him in the lower echelon. His 4.87 ERA and a 3-9 record reflect his struggles. Canning is projected to pitch 5.4 innings today, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs, 5.7 hits, and 1.6 walks, while striking out 4.4 batters.

Lorenzen, though sporting a better 5-4 record and a solid ERA of 3.21, shows signs of potentially regressing. His 4.85 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate thus far. The projections have him going 5.2 innings and allowing roughly 3.0 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.7 walks, with the same 4.4 strikeouts as Canning.

Offensively, the Angels rank 20th in team batting average and home runs, indicating they have been struggling at the plate. Their stolen bases rank 8th, showing some speed on the base paths. Willie Calhoun has been their standout performer over the last week, playing in 4 games.

On the other side, the Rangers are slightly better in batting average and home runs, both ranking 16th. However, their stolen base ranking is a poor 21st. Corey Seager has been on fire lately, racking up 10 hits, 7 runs, 8 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a .417 batting average over the last 6 games.

Considering these factors, the Rangers come into this game as the favorites with a -140 moneyline, giving them a 56% implied win probability. The Angels, as +120 underdogs, have a 44% implied win probability. The projected score for the Rangers to win hinges on key performances from their lineup and a bullpen that can hold the lead against an inconsistent Angels offense. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a higher-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Michael Lorenzen's 2376-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 75th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Corey Seager is likely to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Griffin Canning will surrender an average of 3.11 earned runs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Nolan Schanuel is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the weak infield defense of Texas (#29-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Keston Hiura, Mickey Moniak, Jo Adell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 87 games (+11.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.46 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.94

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