Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction – 5/23/2024

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 23, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On May 23, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Texas Rangers in an Interleague matchup at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, with a record of 36-14, are having a great season, while the Rangers, with a record of 24-26, are having a below-average season. The Phillies, as the home team, will look to capitalize on their strong record and home-field advantage.

The Phillies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler, who has been one of the top performers in the league. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Wheeler is ranked as the #6 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started 10 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 5-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.52. However, his 3.10 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could potentially perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney. Heaney has struggled this season, with a Win/Loss record of 0-5 and an ERA of 4.43. According to our Power Rankings, Heaney is considered a below-average pitcher by MLB standards. However, his 3.80 SIERA indicates that he may have been unlucky this season and could perform better in the future.

In terms of offense, the Phillies have been impressive this season, ranking as the #5 best offense in MLB. They have a strong lineup and have been performing well in various offensive categories. In contrast, the Rangers rank as the #13 best offense in MLB. While they have shown some power with a high team batting average and home run ranking, their stolen base ranking is one of the lowest in the league.

In terms of team bullpen rankings, the Phillies have the #5 best bullpen in MLB, according to our Power Rankings. The Rangers, on the other hand, rank as the #16 best bullpen. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game, as a strong bullpen can provide crucial support in the later innings.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -210, implying a win probability of 65%. The Rangers, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +180, with an implied win probability of 35%. The Phillies have a high implied team total of 4.69 runs, while the Rangers have a lower implied team total of 3.31 runs.

Overall, the Phillies have the advantage in this matchup. With Zack Wheeler on the mound and a strong offense backing him up, they are well-positioned to secure a victory. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. It will be an exciting game to watch as both teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Tallying 14.9 outs per game per started this year on average, Andrew Heaney places him the 22nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This year, there has been a decline in Jonah Heim's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.77 ft/sec last year to 24.91 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Texas Rangers bats as a group rank among the elite in the league since the start of last season (2nd-) as it relates to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's slider rate has decreased by 15.3% from last season to this one (26.6% to 11.3%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

In terms of his home runs, Johan Rojas has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His 7.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 0.0.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Edmundo Sosa pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 30 games (+21.50 Units / 58% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.94 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.67

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