The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays will meet on Saturday afternoon with high stakes for Toronto in that game. The Jays are tied for the AL East lead with the New York Yankees and hold the tiebreaker with just two days left in the regular season. Toronto is the favorite at home in this contest and they will look to protect their division lead. Here, I break down this game in the betting markets and make my Rays vs Blue Jays prediction.
Our Rays vs Blue Jays Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5 total runs
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 3:07 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Joe Boyle (Rays) vs Trey Yesavage (Blue Jays)
- Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: SNET and FDSSUN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Tampa Bay will start Joe Boyle in this game. Boyle carries a 1-3 record and a 4.40 ERA, with 53 strikeouts and 25 walks in 47 innings this season. In his most recent appearance, he allowed one run over 4.1 innings while punching out nine batters. His control is a concern but Boyle has made things work well so far this year.
Toronto will go with Trey Yesavage on the mound. Yesavage is a rookie who is pitching in the biggest spot of his career here. He carries a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP so far in limited MLB action. Tampa Bay has a real chance to capitalize in this game if Yesavage falters.
Recent team streaks
The Jays took game one of this series 4–2, powered by a strong outing from Shane Bieber and clutch hitting. Toronto is now 92–68 on the season and tied with New York for the division lead, holding the tiebreaker via head-to-head record. The Jays have won two games in a row.
Tampa Bay (77–83) has little left to play for other than pride. They have lost two straight games and three of their last four coming into this matchup.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Tampa holds a 7-4 lead in their season series against the Blue Jays.
- The home team has won the last three games played by these teams.
- Toronto is 52-27 at home on the season.
- Tampa is 36-43 on the road in 2025.
Rays vs Blue Jays Model Projection
Score Projection: Blue Jays 6 – Rays 5
Win Probability: Blue Jays 55%, Rays 45%
Final Thoughts
I think that we are going to see a high-scoring game above all else at Rogers Centre today. The Rays should capitalize on facing a rookie pitcher in a high-pressure situation in this game. That will force the Jays to respond to avoid relinquishing their lead in the division. My best bet for this matchup is for the game to go over the total from Toronto.
