Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Preview – 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Tampa Bay Rays in an interleague matchup on September 10, 2024, after the Phillies edged out the Rays 2-1 in their previous game. The Phillies are enjoying a strong season, sitting comfortably at 86-58, while the Rays are struggling at 71-73. This game carries significant weight for the Phillies as they look to build on their impressive performance and solidify their position in the standings.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to start Ranger Suarez, who has been a standout this season with a 2.90 ERA and a 12-6 record over 23 starts. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (54% groundball rate) will be crucial against a Rays lineup that ranks 26th in MLB offensively, struggling with power, having hit just 132 home runs this year—the 3rd least in the league. Conversely, the Rays will counter with Taj Bradley, who has a 4.40 ERA and is having an average season, reflected in his 6-10 record.

The projections favor the Phillies, suggesting they are likely to score around 4.37 runs today, benefiting from their 4th-ranked offense in MLB. The Phillies have been particularly potent recently, with Kyle Schwarber leading the charge, hitting .433 with 6 home runs over the last week. Meanwhile, the Rays, despite their 4th-ranked stolen base capability, face an uphill battle as their best hitter, Yandy Diaz, has only recorded 2 home runs in the last week.

With the Phillies' strong bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB, and the Rays' bullpen sitting at 3rd, the game may hinge on the starters' performances. Ranger Suarez’s solid form and the Phillies' overall offensive strength make them the team to watch as they look to build on their recent success against Tampa Bay.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has used his change-up 13.4% more often this season (27.3%) than he did last season (13.9%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez's fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this year (90.2 mph) below where it was last season (92.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Schwarber has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.2-mph to 100.1-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Marsh has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+13.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 85 of their last 141 games (+24.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.7 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.19

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