Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/22/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays are set to clash on July 22, 2024, at Yankee Stadium in an American League East matchup. The Yankees, currently enjoying a strong season with a 59-42 record, are looking to extend their success. Meanwhile, the Rays, with a 50-49 record, are having a more average season. This game marks the fourth in the series between these two teams.

Carlos Rodon will take the mound for the Yankees, bringing his above-average performance to the game. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Rodon is ranked as the #70 starting pitcher out of approximately 350. He has a 9-7 Win/Loss record and a 4.63 ERA this season. However, his 3.92 SIERA suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may perform better moving forward. Rodon is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 6.8 batters on average today. His high-flyball tendency could play to his advantage against a Rays offense that ranks 26th in home runs.

On the other side, Zack Littell is set to start for the Rays. Littell has been average this season with a 3-6 Win/Loss record and a 4.26 ERA. Projections indicate he might struggle today, with an expected 4.9 innings pitched, 3.0 earned runs allowed, and 4.1 strikeouts. Littell’s high-flyball rate could be a significant disadvantage against the Yankees’ powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB for home runs.

Offensively, the Yankees have been impressive, ranking 4th overall according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. They are 11th in team batting average but 2nd in home runs, a combination that promises to challenge Littell. The Rays, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking 21st overall and 20th in team batting average. Their strength lies in stolen bases, where they rank 5th.

The Yankees bullpen is ranked 18th, while the Rays’ bullpen is stronger, ranked 10th. Despite this, the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% win probability. The Rays, as underdogs with a moneyline of +145, have a 39% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Zack Littell is projected to throw 83 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Jose Siri has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last season's 94-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Carlos Rodon has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 10.9% more often this season (50.5%) than he did last season (39.6%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.6) suggests that Trent Grisham has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 16.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 65 games (+11.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.02 vs New York Yankees 5.33

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.