Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Pick – 5/16/2025

As the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off on May 16, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings in a tightly contested matchup. The Marlins currently sit at 16-26, while the Rays are slightly better at 20-23. Both teams are struggling, with the Marlins ranked 19th in offensive production and the Rays at 23rd. The Marlins recently snapped a losing streak with a 3-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs on May 14, while the Rays come off a convincing 8-3 win against the Toronto Blue Jays.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Max Meyer, who has had an up-and-down season with a 4.37 ERA and a 2-4 record. Although he ranks as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, he has shown flashes of potential, especially with a solid xFIP of 3.23. Meyer projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs with a decent strikeout rate of 6.0 batters per game.

Taj Bradley will take the mound for the Rays. He’s been more consistent this season, boasting a 4.24 ERA and a 3-2 record. While his xERA projects him to perform better, he also faces a Marlins offense that ranks 6th in the league for fewest walks, which could limit his control issues (10.0 BB%). Bradley's projections indicate he will pitch approximately 5.8 innings and allow around 2.7 earned runs.

With both teams struggling to find their footing, this matchup could hinge on which pitcher can capitalize on the opponent's weaknesses. The game's total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a close contest. Given the Marlins' recent win and their projected lineup, they may have the edge, despite their overall struggles this season.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Tampa Bay Rays hitters as a group rank 27th- in the league for power this year when using their 7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Max Meyer's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (65.8% vs. 58.6% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball bats like Derek Hill usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 48% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.24, Miami Marlins 4.07

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Max Meyer - Marlins

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