Tampa Bay Rays VS Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 -110, Rockies 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Rays -155, Rockies 135
• Total (Over/Under):11.5 -110

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 59%
• Colorado Rockies - 41%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 52.03%
• Colorado Rockies - 47.97%

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

On April 7, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at Coors Field in an Interleague matchup. The Rockies, with a record of 2-7, are having a terrible season so far, while the Rays, with a record of 4-5, are having a bad season as well.

The Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dakota Hudson, who has started one game this year. Despite his 0-1 win/loss record, Hudson has yet to allow an earned run this season, boasting an excellent ERA of 0.00. However, his 5.39 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot. In his last start, Pepiot struggled, allowing six earned runs over six innings pitched. His ERA stands at a high 9.53, but his 6.24 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

The Rockies offense ranks as the 21st best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average ranking of 18th. However, they struggle in home runs, ranking 24th, and stolen bases, ranking last in the league. In contrast, the Rays offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB, with a strong team batting average ranking of 9th. They excel in home runs, ranking 4th, and stolen bases, ranking 2nd.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Rockies bullpen ranks 7th best in MLB, while the Rays bullpen ranks 16th. This gives the Rockies an advantage in the late innings of the game.

The Rockies' best hitter this season has been Ryan McMahon, who boasts a .406 batting average and a 1.130 OPS. The Rays' best hitter, Jose Siri, has recorded six stolen bases this season.

In their last game, the Rockies lost to the Rays by a score of 8-6. The Rockies had a closing Moneyline price of +115, indicating a 45% win probability, but the Rays were favored with a -135 Moneyline price and a 55% win probability.

THE BAT X projects the Rockies to have a win probability of 48%, while the Rays have a win probability of 52%. This suggests a close game, with THE BAT X giving the Rockies a slightly higher chance of winning than the betting market implies.

With a high Game Total of 11.5 runs, both teams are expected to score heavily in this matchup. The Rockies are underdogs with a moneyline of +135, implying a 41% win probability, while the Rays are favorites with a moneyline of -160, implying a 59% win probability.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 6 bats who share the same handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Ryan Pepiot should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, hitters like Harold Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Dakota Hudson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Tampa Bay Rays are expected to tally the most runs (5.56 on average) of the day.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Charlie Blackmon will have an advantage today.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Elias Diaz, the Rockies's expected catcher today, profiles as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 68 games (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 32 away games (+12.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jose Siri has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.20 Units / 160% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 5.56 vs Colorado Rockies 5.03

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