Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Quinn Priester - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays square off at Fenway Park on September 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in an unusual position within the American League East, sporting identical 80-81 records. This matchup marks the third game in their series, with the Rays taking the previous contest convincingly, 7-2, on September 28. Neither team is in playoff contention, which means this game is more about pride and finishing the season on a positive note.

The Red Sox will send Quinn Priester to the mound, a pitcher who has struggled this season with a 5.04 ERA. Despite these challenges, his 4.11 xFIP suggests some bad luck, indicating potential for better performance. Priester's match-up with the Rays could be favorable as he faces a high-strikeout Rays lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts. On the flip side, Priester’s groundball approach might not exploit the Rays’ power deficiencies, as they rank 28th in MLB home runs.

The Rays counter with Ryan Pepiot, who has delivered a solid season with a 3.64 ERA. Known for his strikeout ability, Pepiot could exploit the Red Sox's lineup, which ranks 3rd in strikeouts. However, Boston's offense is potent, ranking 7th overall, 6th in batting average, and 9th in home runs, which could pose a challenge for Pepiot.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rays a slight edge with a 51% win probability, while betting markets see this as a toss-up with both teams at -110. Pepiot’s advantage on the mound, combined with the Rays’ superior bullpen, ranked 5th, could be the deciding factors in this tight matchup. Meanwhile, the Red Sox's bullpen sits at an average 14th, needing to support Priester to help Boston avoid another series loss.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Given the 0.2 difference between Ryan Pepiot's 9.79 K/9 and his 9.59 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to perform worse the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brandon Lowe may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Tampa Bay grades out as the #30 club in MLB when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (40.7% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Quinn Priester has recorded a 14.5% K% this year, placing in the 13th percentile.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.304) suggests that Vaughn Grissom has had bad variance on his side this year with his .209 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Boston Red Sox hitters as a unit rank 4th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 9.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 88 of their last 150 games (+21.06 Units / 12% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.32 vs Boston Red Sox 4.04

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.