Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 6/28/2025

The Baltimore Orioles will host the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of their series on June 28, 2025. The Orioles currently sit at 35-46, struggling this season, while the Rays are faring much better at 46-36. With such a gulf in their records, this matchup carries significant weight for the Orioles as they look to turn their season around.

The Orioles are projected to start Zach Eflin, who, despite being ranked the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had a mixed season. Eflin's 6-4 record is decent, but his 5.46 ERA suggests he has struggled on the mound, though his 4.24 xFIP indicates he might perform better moving forward. Projecting an average outing today, Eflin is expected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Zack Littell, who has a 6-7 record and a solid 3.78 ERA. However, his underlying numbers point to potential trouble ahead, as his 4.57 FIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year. Littell is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 3.4 earned runs, which could give the Orioles an opportunity to capitalize.

Offensively, the Rays boast the 7th best lineup in MLB, while the Orioles rank 24th. The projections favor the Rays' offense over the Orioles, especially considering the latter's low walk rate and Littell's low walk percentage, which could lead to an advantage for the Orioles if they can capitalize on any mistakes.

With both teams eyeing a victory, the total set at 10.0 runs indicates that oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair, making this a crucial matchup for the Orioles as they aim to improve their standing against a strong Rays squad.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (91.4 mph) below where it was last year (92.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Typically, batters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Zach Eflin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #5 HR venue among all parks — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Ramon Laureano has big-time power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Zack Littell has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Laureano.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+11.48 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 51 games (+13.33 Units / 22% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 23% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.73, Baltimore Orioles 5.58

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles

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