Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On September 11, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park for the third game of their interleague series. The Phillies are currently in a strong position with an impressive record of 87-58, while the Rays sit at a more average 71-74. With the playoffs nearing, the Phillies are looking to solidify their postseason standing, having recently defeated the Rays 9-4 in their last matchup.

Pitching for the Phillies is Zack Wheeler, who ranks as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Wheeler has been a dominant force this season, boasting a 14-6 record and an exceptional ERA of 2.59. In his last start on September 6, he allowed just one earned run over six innings, striking out seven batters. His ability to generate strikeouts will be crucial against a Rays offense that ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts.

Conversely, the Rays will send Shane Baz to the mound. While Baz has a respectable ERA of 3.27, his xFIP of 4.69 suggests he may have been fortunate this season. He has struggled to consistently go deep into games, averaging only 4.7 innings pitched. With the Rays' offense ranked 26th overall, they will need to capitalize on any opportunities against a top-tier pitcher like Wheeler.

The projections lean heavily in favor of the Phillies, who are expected to score around 4.70 runs in this matchup, compared to a low 3.28 runs projected for the Rays. This game presents a significant opportunity for the Phillies to extend their lead in the standings, especially given their strong offensive performance this season, ranking 4th in MLB. With the Phillies as heavy favorites at a moneyline of -205, bettors may find value in backing Wheeler and the Phillies to build on their recent success.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Compared to the average hurler, Shane Baz has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -7.2 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 12th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Tampa Bay Rays have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Wheeler today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 8th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 70 of their last 123 games (+12.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.47 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.49

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