Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 5/16/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 16, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On May 16, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will play host to the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park. This American League East matchup is set to be an exciting showdown between two teams with similar records this season. The Red Sox currently hold a 22-21 record, while the Rays sit at 22-22. Both teams have been performing at an average level so far.

Taking the mound for the Red Sox is right-handed pitcher Cooper Criswell. Although our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Criswell to be ranked as the #166 best starting pitcher in MLB, his performance this year has been solid. In six starts, he has recorded a 2-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.10. However, his 3.26 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Criswell will be right-hander Zack Littell, who has been an average pitcher according to our Power Rankings. Littell has started eight games this season, earning a 2-2 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.02. However, his projected statistics for this game indicate potential struggles, with an average innings pitched and an expected high number of hits and walks allowed.

In their last game, these two teams faced each other, with the Rays coming out on top with a 4-3 victory. The Red Sox had a slight advantage in terms of the closing Moneyline price and implied win probability, indicating that it was expected to be a close game. However, the Rays managed to secure the win and continue their strong performance.

Offensively, the Red Sox have been ranked as the 12th best team in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking third in the league. On the other hand, the Rays boast a strong offense, ranking 16th overall and excelling in team home runs and stolen bases.

The Red Sox's best hitter this season has been Jarren Duran, while Isaac Paredes has been leading the charge for the Rays. Both players have been consistent contributors to their respective teams' offensive success.

According to THE BAT X, the Red Sox have a slight edge in win probability at 51%, while the Rays are projected to have a 49% chance of victory. The current moneyline reflects this close matchup, with both teams at -110.

Overall, this game is expected to be closely contested, with both teams having a chance to secure the win. The Red Sox will aim to rebound from their previous loss to the Rays, while Tampa Bay looks to build upon their recent success. Be prepared for an exciting battle between these division rivals.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's fastball velocity has dropped 1.2 mph this season (92.2 mph) below where it was last year (93.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Richie Palacios has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Cooper Criswell has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -14.9 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dominic Smith stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+11.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+11.35 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.49 vs Boston Red Sox 4.31

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