St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks – 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 2, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Brewers currently sit with an impressive record of 80-57, solidifying their status as a competitive force in the National League Central. In contrast, the Cardinals are hovering around the .500 mark at 69-68, struggling to find consistent momentum this season.

In their last outing, the Brewers faced off against the Cincinnati Reds, suffering a narrow defeat by a score of 4-3. Meanwhile, the Cardinals put on an offensive display against the New York Yankees, winning decisively 14-7. This recent performance could give St. Louis a boost, but they will face a tough challenge against Freddy Peralta, who is projected to start for Milwaukee. Peralta ranks as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB and has shown strong capabilities this season, particularly evident in his last start where he pitched six innings with no earned runs and eight strikeouts.

The Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who has had a decent season but ranks 73rd among starting pitchers. Pallante's last outing saw him give up eight hits but manage to limit the damage to just two earned runs. However, both pitchers have struggled with hits and walks, which could play a crucial role in this matchup.

Offensively, the Brewers boast the 8th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their strong batting average and ability to steal bases. In contrast, the Cardinals rank 20th overall, indicating that they may struggle to keep pace with Milwaukee's offense. Projections suggest that the Brewers are favored to score 4.16 runs on average, while the Cardinals are expected to generate only 3.57 runs. With Milwaukee's solid pitching and a potent offense, they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante is an extreme groundball pitcher (59.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in American Family Field — the #10 HR venue among all major league parks — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.5) suggests that Alec Burleson has been lucky this year with his 25.2 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The St. Louis Cardinals projected lineup grades out as the 3rd-worst on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has used his curveball 7% less often this season (5.5%) than he did last year (12.5%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jackson Chourio is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 77 of their last 137 games (+11.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 47 games (+11.75 Units / 16% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.57 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.16

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