St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/3/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 3, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Justin Verlander - Astros

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros (26-34) are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals (28-29) in an Interleague matchup at Minute Maid Park on June 3, 2024. The Astros, currently having a bad season, will look to bounce back against the Cardinals, who are having an average season.

The Astros are projected to start the talented right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander, who has been a key player for the team. Verlander has started 8 games this year, boasting a win/loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.26. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could potentially perform worse going forward.

On the other hand, the Cardinals are expected to start Kyle Gibson, a right-handed pitcher who has started 11 games this year. Gibson holds a win/loss record of 4-2 and an ERA of 3.60. Like Verlander, his xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

In terms of offensive prowess, the Astros have been impressive this season, ranking as the 5th best team in MLB. They have showcased their power with the 9th most home runs in the league. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking as the 23rd best team in MLB.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Cardinals have the advantage, ranking as the 3rd best bullpen in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Astros' bullpen, while still solid, ranks 14th.

Based on current odds, the Astros are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% chance of winning. The Cardinals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +145, suggesting a 40% chance of winning. The Astros also have a higher implied team total of 4.46 runs compared to the Cardinals' 3.54 runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's change-up usage has dropped by 7.1% from last year to this one (17% to 9.9%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

This year, there has been a decline in Matt Carpenter's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.32 ft/sec last year to 23.72 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Out of all starters, Justin Verlander's fastball spin rate of 2405 rpm is in the 76th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Abreu's true offensive ability to be a .311, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .155 gap between that mark and his actual .156 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Houston's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in the game: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 26 away games (+3.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 away games (+14.70 Units / 86% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.98 vs Houston Astros 5.04

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