St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 6/28/2025

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 28, 2025, at Progressive Field, both teams are looking for a chance to gain ground in their respective divisions. The Guardians currently sit at .500 with a record of 40-40, while the Cardinals' 45-38 mark indicates they are enjoying an above-average season. This matchup is crucial as it marks the second game of their series, following a tight contest where the Guardians narrowly lost.

Projected to start for the Guardians is Slade Cecconi, a right-handed pitcher with a season ERA of 3.38. Although he ranks 159th among MLB starters—indicating struggles in terms of consistency—his strong ERA suggests promising potential. However, advanced metrics imply he may face challenges moving forward. Cecconi has pitched 7 games this season, boasting a 3-3 record, but he projects to allow 2.6 earned runs in about 5.1 innings today.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas, who has not fared well this season, with a 4.31 ERA and a 4-5 record in 15 starts. Although he has been considered one of the weaker pitchers in the league, projections hint at a potential upswing due to being a bit unlucky this year.

Offensively, the Guardians are struggling, ranking 25th in MLB, and their performance reflects a lack of power, while the Cardinals occupy the 15th spot in offensive efficiency. Based on current betting lines, Cleveland is favored with a moneyline of -120, suggesting oddsmakers see them as slightly more likely to win this contest.

With both teams keen to secure a victory, the Guardians will need their best hitters to step up and possibly support Cecconi against a Cardinals lineup that, while average overall, can capitalize on mistakes. The projected total for today's game is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a balanced showdown.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Miles Mikolas has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.8% more often this year (54.8%) than he did last year (49%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Slade Cecconi's 2394-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 75th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bo Naylor has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 81.2-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.45 Units / 29% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 31 away games (+11.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+10.80 Units / 180% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.62, Cleveland Guardians 4.47

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Slade Cecconi - Guardians

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