St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 4/29/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park on April 29, 2025, both teams find themselves on different ends of the spectrum this season. The Reds currently sit at 16-13, enjoying a solid campaign, while the Cardinals struggle with a 12-17 record. Cincinnati won the opener of this series 3-1, further amplifying their strong position in the National League Central.

Cincinnati’s Brady Singer is projected to take the mound, boasting an impressive 4-0 record and a solid ERA of 3.62 this season. Notably, Singer is ranked as the 75th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics, indicating his above-average capability. His performance suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, with a lower expected ERA of 2.96, hinting at even better outings ahead. While he projects to pitch approximately 5.7 innings and allow about 2.7 earned runs, he also has concerning forecasts regarding hits and walks, potentially allowing 5.5 hits and 1.6 walks on average.

On the other hand, St. Louis's Miles Mikolas has faced a rough start this season, with a 0-2 record and an ERA of 5.70, ranking him among the worst in MLB. While his projections suggest he may see slight improvement, with an expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 5.04, he still is likely to allow around 3.2 earned runs and 6.0 hits.

Offensively, the Reds rank 6th in MLB, with a particularly strong batting average. Conversely, while the Cardinals boast the 1st best team batting average, their power numbers lag, ranking 20th in home runs. This contrast in offensive effectiveness may provide Cincinnati an edge.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs and the Reds holding a moneyline of -135, betting markets suggest a tightly contested matchup where the Reds could capitalize on their current form and pitching advantage.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Miles Mikolas has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 8.7% more often this season (57.7%) than he did last season (49%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

In the last week's worth of games, Brendan Donovan's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

From last season to this one, Jake Fraley's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.1 mph to 87 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 59% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.62, Cincinnati Reds 5

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Brady Singer - Reds

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