St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks 6/15/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On June 15, 2024, the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals continue their rivalry in a National League Central showdown at Wrigley Field. The Cubs enter the game with a below-average 33-37 record, while the Cardinals sit at an even 34-34, making this an important game for both teams looking to improve their standings.

The Cubs' offense hasn't been particularly impressive this season, ranking 19th overall, with notable struggles in batting average (27th) and home runs (20th). They will be leaning on David Bote, who has been scorching hot over the last week, hitting .714 with a 1.571 OPS in four games. This offensive spark could be crucial against a Cardinals bullpen ranked 6th in the league by advanced Power Rankings, a sharp contrast to their year-to-date 21st-place offensive rank.

Shota Imanaga will take the mound for the Cubs, boasting a stellar 1.96 ERA along with a 6-1 record from his 12 starts. Despite his success, his 3.40 xERA indicates he might have been fortunate so far. Imanaga's numbers suggest a potential regression, but he remains a strong presence on the mound. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.7 batters.

Facing him will be Andre Pallante for the Cardinals, who sports a less impressive 4.88 ERA. However, Pallante's 4.27 xERA suggests he's experienced some bad luck and may perform better moving forward. Pallante has also made 12 bullpen appearances, which could influence his stamina and effectiveness as a starter in this game. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 3.2 batters.

One key matchup to watch is Pallante’s control issues vs. the Cubs' patience at the plate. Pallante’s 11.1% walk rate meets a Cubs offense that ranks 5th in walks. This could lead to multiple baserunners and scoring opportunities for the Cubs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 55% win probability, higher than the betting market's implied 61%. While the Cubs are favored, the Cardinals' projected 45% win probability suggests a potential value bet on the underdogs, especially given Pallante's underlying stats and the Cubs' middling offensive rankings.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante projects to strikeout an average of 3.2 batters in today's outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Dylan Carlson has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .279 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .340.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 6 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Shota Imanaga will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nico Hoerner's 1.7% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) grades out in the 3rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen projects as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+9.50 Units / 20% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.41 vs Chicago Cubs 4.66

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