St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 4/23/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves will host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 23, 2025, in what marks the third game of their series. Both teams are struggling to find their footing early in the season, sitting near the bottom of their division standings. The Braves enter the game with a record of 9-14, while the Cardinals are slightly better at 10-14. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers—Bryce Elder for the Braves and Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals—who have both had rough starts to the season.

In their last game, the Braves fell short against the Cardinals, continuing their search for consistency. Elder's season has been particularly challenging, with a 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 7.20 after three starts. Despite this, his xFIP of 4.33 suggests he might be due for better results, as it indicates he has been somewhat unlucky thus far. Elder is projected to pitch about 5.6 innings and allow around 2.7 earned runs, but he will need to improve upon his average of 5.5 hits allowed per game if the Braves hope to secure a victory.

Mikolas, on the other hand, has not fared much better, holding a record of 0-2 with a 7.64 ERA after four starts. His projections hint at similar difficulties, with an expected 5.1 innings pitched and 3.1 earned runs allowed. While both offenses have shown flashes, the Braves rank 18th in MLB, compared to the Cardinals' impressive 6th ranking. Atlanta's power has been a bright spot, ranking 9th in home runs, but their overall performance has been inconsistent.

With the Braves listed as betting favorites at -165, they have a high implied team total of 4.71 runs for this contest. Given the struggles of both starting pitchers, fans can expect an interesting showdown at Truist Park.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Batters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bryce Elder who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 6th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (51% compared to 44.7% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jarred Kelenic has big-time HR ability (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas is a pitch-to-contact type (21st percentile K%) — great news for Kelenic.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 24% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.6, Atlanta Braves 5.13

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

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