St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals Pick For 7/7/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park on July 7, 2024, both teams are looking to gain an edge in this National League matchup. The Nationals, with a record of 42-47, are having a below-average season, while the Cardinals, at 46-42, are performing above average. This game marks the third in the series between these two teams.

Washington will send left-hander DJ Herz to the mound. Herz, who has started six games this year, holds a 1-2 record with a 4.67 ERA. Despite his below-average ranking as the #140 best starting pitcher in MLB, Herz's peripheral stats suggest he has been unlucky. His 3.18 xFIP, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicates he may perform better going forward. However, Herz's projections for this game are less encouraging, with an expected 4.6 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with right-hander Kyle Gibson. Gibson's 6-3 record and 3.88 ERA reflect a solid season, but his 4.81 xERA suggests he has been fortunate and might regress. Gibson is projected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 3.0 earned runs, which is average. Both pitchers will face offenses that struggle with power, with the Nationals ranking 29th in home runs and the Cardinals 25th.

The Nationals' offense, ranked 24th overall, has been buoyed recently by Luis Garcia, who has been on a tear over the last week. Garcia has posted a .429 batting average with 3 home runs and 8 RBIs in his last six games. Conversely, the Cardinals' Willson Contreras has been their standout performer, hitting .273 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs over the same span.

One critical factor to watch is the bullpen performance. The Nationals' bullpen ranks 28th, a stark contrast to the Cardinals' 4th-ranked bullpen. This disparity could be pivotal in a game where both starting pitchers are projected to allow a fair number of runs.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Cardinals favored at -130 and the Nationals at +110. Given the Nationals' implied team total of 4.29 runs and the Cardinals' 4.71 runs, expect a high-scoring affair with a game total set at 9.0 runs. The Nationals may have an edge if Herz can capitalize on the Cardinals' lack of power, while Gibson's groundball tendencies could negate Washington's limited home run threat.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's 90.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.2-mph drop off from last year's 91.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball bats like Nolan Arenado tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like DJ Herz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, DJ Herz (38% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 games (+13.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games (+4.85 Units / 8% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.35 Units / 66% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.95 vs Washington Nationals 4.57

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