St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 7/8/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 8, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals gear up to host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in different positions this season. The Nationals, sitting at 42-48, are struggling to stay competitive, while the Cardinals are maintaining a respectable 47-42 record. This game marks the fourth in the series between these National League teams, with both sides looking to gain an edge.

The Nationals will send left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker to the mound. Parker has started 15 games this season, boasting a 5-4 record and a solid 3.61 ERA. He ranks as the #146 starting pitcher in MLB, indicating a below-average status. However, his performance has shown promise, and he'll need to bring his best against a Cardinals lineup that ranks as the 19th best offense in the league.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with right-hander Miles Mikolas. Despite his 6-7 record and a concerning 5.19 ERA, Mikolas has been somewhat unlucky, as evidenced by his 4.07 xFIP, suggesting he might be due for a better performance. His projected 5.7 innings pitched and 3.1 earned runs allowed are average, but his low strikeout rate of 17.3% could be a disadvantage against a Nationals offense that ranks 6th in the league for least strikeouts.

Offensively, the Nationals have struggled overall, ranking 24th in MLB, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd. Luis Garcia has been on a tear over the last week, hitting .500 with a 1.545 OPS, three home runs, and eight RBIs in six games. His hot streak could be pivotal in turning the tide for Washington.

The Cardinals' offense, while average overall, will need to capitalize on the Nationals' bullpen, which ranks 29th in Power Rankings despite a better year-to-date performance. Nolan Gorman has been leading the charge for St. Louis, hitting .474 with a 1.289 OPS over the last week.

With both teams having an implied win probability of 50%, this matchup is expected to be a close contest. However, the Nationals' recent offensive surge and the Cardinals' bullpen strength suggest that the game could swing either way, making it an intriguing watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has used his curveball 8.1% less often this year (11.9%) than he did last year (20%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2242 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2191 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Keibert Ruiz's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 85-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 79.7-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 87 games (+8.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 61% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.23 vs Washington Nationals 4.77

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.