St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction – 5/31/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 31, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. As the home team, the Phillies will look to capitalize on their great season with a record of 39-18. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are having an average season with a 27-27 record. This National League matchup is the first game in a series between these two teams.

The Phillies are projected to start Aaron Nola, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing exceptionally well this season. Nola has started 11 games, boasting a 6-2 win/loss record and an impressive 3.04 ERA. However, his 3.72 SIERA suggests that he may have been fortunate and could face some challenges going forward.

On the other side, the Cardinals are projected to start Miles Mikolas, another right-handed pitcher. Mikolas has started 11 games, but his performance has been subpar with a 3-5 win/loss record and a high 5.64 ERA. However, his 4.01 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may see improvement in his future outings.

In terms of offense, the Phillies rank as the third-best team in MLB this season, showcasing their impressive talent. They stand at eighth in team batting average and tenth in stolen bases. In contrast, the Cardinals have an average offense, ranking nineteenth overall. They excel in team batting average, ranking seventh in the league, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking twenty-third.

When it comes to bullpen strength, the Phillies rank seventh-best in MLB, while the Cardinals boast the second-best bullpen. These rankings are based on advanced-stat Power Rankings, which provide estimates of underlying talent.

Taking a look at the implied win probabilities, the Phillies are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -180 and an implied win probability of 62%. The Cardinals, as underdogs, hold a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%.

With the Phillies having a higher win probability according to the projections and implied odds, they are positioned as the favorable team in this matchup. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Cardinals will look to defy the odds and deliver a strong performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's slider utilization has spiked by 5.2% from last year to this one (24.3% to 29.5%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In terms of his home runs, Matt Carpenter has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 12.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola's fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this year (91 mph) below where it was last season (92.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Schwarber has strong power (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas doesn't generate many whiffs (20th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 53 games (+18.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+3.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.80 Units / 51% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.76 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.81

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