Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Pick – 6/27/2025

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on June 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race within the American League West. The Rangers sit at 40-41, while the Mariners are slightly ahead at 41-39. Both teams are having average seasons, and this matchup marks the first game in a series that could have implications for the standings.

Coming into this series, the Mariners' best hitter has been Cal Raleigh, who leads the league with 32 home runs. This performance has contributed to the Mariners' ranking as the 7th best offense in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs effectively. In contrast, the Rangers' offense has struggled, ranking 28th overall, which could be a significant disadvantage in this matchup.

On the mound, Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start for the Rangers. Eovaldi has been solid this season with a 4-3 record and an excellent ERA of 1.56. However, the projections suggest he may be due for regression, as his 2.68 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat lucky. He is expected to pitch around 4.0 innings, allowing 1.6 earned runs on average, but his below-average strikeout rate of 4.2 may leave the Rangers vulnerable.

Logan Gilbert, on the other hand, is expected to take the hill for the Mariners. With a 2-2 record and a strong ERA of 3.12, coupled with a low walk rate of 4.4%, Gilbert projects to pitch 6.0 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters. His performance could be a key factor in limiting the struggling Rangers offense.

Despite the close moneyline odds, the projections favor the Mariners, who could capitalize on their offensive advantages and Gilbert's strong showing on the mound. As both teams vie for a crucial win, this matchup promises to be an intriguing contest in the American League West.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Luke Raley has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Luke Raley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 7th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Nathan Eovaldi in the 87th percentile among all starters in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Texas's 15.7° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in baseball this year: #1 overall.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 68 games (+20.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 73 games (+6.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.19, Texas Rangers 3.69

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

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