Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 5/17/2025

As the San Diego Padres host the Seattle Mariners on May 17, 2025, this promising interleague matchup features two teams with decent records, both looking to bolster their standing. The Padres sit at 27-16, having a fantastic season, while the Mariners trail closely behind at 24-19. In their previous game, the Mariners battled fiercely for a victory over the Padres, making this second game of the series crucial for both squads.

Projected to take the mound for the Padres is Nick Pivetta, who has been solid this season with a 5-2 record and an impressive 3.05 ERA. Although his 3.70 xFIP suggests some luck, he’s still an above-average starter ranked 66th among approximately 350 pitchers. His ability to strike out 6.6 batters per game could be a significant advantage, especially as he faces a Mariners offense that ranks 9th in home runs this season.

Emerson Hancock, starting for the Mariners, has struggled with a 1-2 record and a troubling 6.91 ERA. While projections indicate he may perform better than his current numbers suggest, he remains one of the less effective pitchers in the league. His low strikeout rate and tendency to give up 5.5 hits per game could work in the Padres’ favor, as they boast the 11th best offense in MLB this season.

Betting odds favor the Padres with a moneyline of -170, reflecting their higher win probability. With the Padres' bullpen currently ranked 4th and the Mariners' at 20th, that edge could prove pivotal in a tightly contested game where the total is set at an average 8.0 runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock's sinker percentage has increased by 13.1% from last season to this one (29.8% to 42.9%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jorge Polanco has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.8-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta was on point in his previous start and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme flyball hitters like Brandon Lockridge tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Emerson Hancock.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.88, San Diego Padres 4.51

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres

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