Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Game 1 Prediction - 10/4/2025
Updated October 3, 2025
Updated October 3, 2025
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will face off in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Saturday afternoon. These NL Central teams both won over 90 games in the regular season. But only one of them can win this best-of-five series and represent their division in the NLCS. Before the first pitch from Milwaukee on Saturday, continue reading to get my Cubs vs Brewers Game 1 prediction.
The Brewers will lean on ace Freddy Peralta to open this series. Peralta leads the National League in wins and has established himself as a reliable pitcher throughout the year. He logged 204 strikeouts this season and has held opponents to a 2.70 ERA. He ranks in the top-10 in MLB in both of those categories and will try to use that to shut down the Cubs here.
The Cubs have opted to start Matthew Boyd in this series opener. Boyd pitched well in his first start of the postseason, giving up one earned run in 4.1 innings of work against the San Diego Padres. The edge in this pitching matchup goes to Peralta, but Boyd has proven that he can certainly hold his own against elite competition.
Chicago enters off a hard-fought Wild Card series win over San Diego. The Cubs won that series 2–1, taking Games 1 and 3 to advance to the NLDS. Boyd provided a solid start in Game 1 and the Cubs’ bullpen threw 4.1 innings of perfect relief in the decider. Milwaukee enjoyed a bye into the NLDS and enters the series fully rested, coming off a regular season in which they posted an MLB-best 97–65 record.
Player | Stat | Pick |
|---|---|---|
Freddy Peralta | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
Seiya Suzuki | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
Michael Busch | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
Score Projection: Milwaukee 4 – Chicago 2
Win Probability: Milwaukee 65%, Chicago 35%
I am expecting a low-scoring series opener between these teams that are very familiar with one another. Both starting pitchers in this game are capable of throwing gems. But I give a slight edge to Peralta and the Brewers in this matchup. They are at home and well-rested, which should be a perfect recipe to take a 1-0 series lead on Saturday afternoon.
