Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Preview – 7/11/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium on July 11, 2024, the stage is set for an intriguing American League West matchup. The Angels, currently languishing with a 38-54 record, are having a terrible season, while the Mariners boast a 51-43 record, marking an above-average season for them. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start Jack Kochanowicz, a right-hander who has struggled mightily this season. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Kochanowicz is ranked 245th among approximately 350 starting pitchers, highlighting his difficulties on the mound. His projections for this game are equally unpromising, with an average of 4.8 innings pitched, 2.9 earned runs allowed, and just 3.7 strikeouts. In contrast, the Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo, a right-hander ranked 40th in the Power Rankings. Castillo has a respectable 3.72 ERA over 19 starts and an average projection of 5.8 innings, 2.6 earned runs, and 5.9 strikeouts per game.

Offensively, the Angels have struggled overall, ranking 22nd in the league. While their batting average is just 20th, they do possess some power, ranking 15th in home runs and 7th in stolen bases. The Mariners, on the other hand, have had a tough time at the plate, with their offense ranked 28th overall and dead last in batting average. They do, however, show some potential in the power department, ranking 12th in home runs and 11th in stolen bases.

One of the key storylines to watch is the bullpen performance. Both teams have struggled mightily in this area, with the Angels ranked 30th and the Mariners 27th according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could be a critical factor as the game progresses, potentially turning the tide in favor of either team.

The leading projection system, THE BAT X, favors the Mariners in this matchup, giving them a 59% win probability compared to the implied 60% from the betting odds. On the other hand, the Angels are given a 41% chance by the projections, close to the 40% implied by the odds.

Overall, with the Mariners' stronger pitching and slightly better offensive metrics, they appear to have the upper hand. However, with both teams' bullpens struggling, late-game heroics could play a pivotal role in deciding the outcome.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing hitters in this game... and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jorge Polanco generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kevin Pillar has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.40 Units / 51% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.53 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.19

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