Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 4/16/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Seattle Mariners on April 16, 2025, at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their series. Both teams have had their struggles this season, with the Reds sitting at 9-8 and the Mariners at 8-9. The Reds are enjoying an above-average start while the Mariners are experiencing a below-average run. In their last outing, the Reds won 8-4 over the Mariners.

Nick Martinez, projected to start for the Reds, has faced difficulties this year. He holds a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 6.06, indicating significant struggles on the mound. However, his 3.74 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement moving forward. On the other hand, Bryce Miller will take the mound for Seattle. He also has a Win/Loss record of 0-2, but his ERA is a more respectable 4.50, with advanced projections indicating he might outperform this number.

The Reds' offense ranks 27th in MLB this season, with a painfully low batting average that is 29th out of 30 teams. Conversely, the Mariners have shown some power, ranking 9th in home runs, which could pose a significant threat against Martinez, a high-flyball pitcher facing a potent lineup.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Reds have an implied team total of 4.15 runs while the Mariners' is slightly higher at 4.35 runs. With betting markets giving a slight edge to the Mariners, this matchup presents a compelling narrative, particularly with Seattle's ability to capitalize on Martinez's flyball tendencies. The game total stands at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a close contest.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this year (93.6 mph) below where it was last season (95.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Cal Raleigh has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph to 100.2-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.4) suggests that TJ Friedl has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his 20.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 82 games at home (+7.60 Units / 8% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 40% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.75, Cincinnati Reds 4.52

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Nick Martinez - Reds

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