Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 6/8/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 8, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Alec Marsh - Royals

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners prepare for the second game of their series on June 8, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the American League. The Royals, with a strong 38-26 record, are having an excellent season, while the Mariners, holding a 36-29 record, are also performing well. In yesterday's opener, the Royals managed to secure a victory, setting the stage for another competitive matchup at Kauffman Stadium.

The Royals will send Alec Marsh to the mound. Marsh has started 10 games this season, boasting a 4-3 record with a respectable 3.76 ERA. However, his 4.27 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate, and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, expects some regression. Today, Marsh projects to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs with 4.6 strikeouts, which isn’t promising against a Mariners lineup that ranks 11th in home runs.

On the other hand, Luis Castillo will take the hill for the Mariners. Castillo has been exceptional, sporting a 2.99 ERA over 13 starts, despite a 5-6 win/loss record. His 3.70 xFIP indicates some good fortune as well, but he projects to pitch 5.9 innings today, allowing 2.9 earned runs with 5.2 strikeouts. However, Castillo's projections also suggest he might struggle with control, allowing 1.5 walks on average.

Offensively, the Royals have the upper hand, ranking 8th overall and 6th in batting average. Bobby Witt Jr. has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .409 with a 1.231 OPS, 9 hits, 5 runs, and 5 RBIs. This contrast sharply with the Mariners, who rank 26th overall and 29th in batting average. Despite this, Luke Raley has been a bright spot, hitting .333 with a 1.244 OPS over the last week.

Both bullpens have struggled, with the Royals ranking 23rd and the Mariners 25th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could mean a high-scoring affair, reflected in the game total set at 8.5 runs. Despite being underdogs with a +120 moneyline and an implied win probability of 44%, Kansas City's robust offense and recent form could make them a compelling pick against a Mariners team favored at -140.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Luis Castillo has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.4 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

When it comes to his batting average, Dominic Canzone has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .205 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .284.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Seattle Mariners have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luke Raley, Dylan Moore, Cal Raleigh).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Given the 1.29 discrepancy between Alec Marsh's 7.53 K/9 and his 8.82 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and should see better results going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Since the start of last season, Nelson Velazquez's 21.1% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 99th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 57 games (+11.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.60 Units / 31% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.49 vs Kansas City Royals 4.84

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