San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 4/29/2025

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On April 29, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park in what promises to be an exciting National League West matchup. The Padres enter this game with a solid 17-11 record, while the Giants slightly edge them at 19-10. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, making this a critical early series in the division.

The Giants have their ace Logan Webb taking the mound in this game. Webb is projected to pitch 6.8 innings and allow just 1.9 earned runs on average today, solidifying his status as one of the elite pitchers in the league. His 30.8% strikeout rate will challenge a Padres offense that has the least strikeouts in MLB. However, this might work in San Diego’s favor, as they can capitalize on Webb’s tendency to rely on strikeouts.

Nick Pivetta is set to start for the Padres, sporting a 4-1 record with an impressive 1.20 ERA across five starts. However, his 3.38 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Pivetta's projected performance today includes allowing 2.2 earned runs over 5.5 innings, which could keep the game competitive if he can minimize runs early.

Despite the Padres ranking 13th best in MLB offensively, their low team total of 3.10 runs reflects skepticism about their ability to produce against Webb and the Giants' solid pitching. In contrast, the projections indicate that the Giants could struggle to score as well, with a team total of 3.40 runs. Given the low Game Total of 6.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Padres, especially with their strong bullpen ranked 2nd best in MLB. This matchup could be closer than the odds suggest, making it an intriguing game for betting enthusiasts.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb's slider utilization has spiked by 6.5% from last year to this one (21.3% to 27.8%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Patrick Bailey's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 86.9-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 80.4-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Ranking 8th-steepest in Major League Baseball this year, San Francisco Giants bats collectively have recorded a 15.3° launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta's 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1-mph fall off from last year's 93.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball bats like Jose Iglesias generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.00 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jose Iglesias has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.78, San Diego Padres 2.96

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres

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