San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Preview – 5/25/2024

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated matchup, the New York Mets will take on the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field on May 25, 2024. The Mets, who have had a disappointing season with a record of 21-29, will be looking to bounce back against the Giants, who are having an average season with a record of 26-26.

The Mets will send right-handed pitcher Luis Severino to the mound, while the Giants will counter with right-hander Jordan Hicks. Severino, who is ranked as the #143 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started 9 games this year and has a win/loss record of 2-2. He has an impressive ERA of 3.48, but his 4.18 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other hand, Hicks, ranked as the #76 best starting pitcher in MLB, has started 10 games this season and has a win/loss record of 4-1. He boasts an excellent ERA of 2.38, but his 3.99 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and might not sustain his success going forward.

The Mets will be looking to avenge their loss in the previous game against the Giants, where they fell short by a score of 8-7. Despite being the favorites in that game with a closing Moneyline price of -140, the Mets couldn't secure the win. The Giants, as underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +120, capitalized on their opportunity and emerged victorious.

In terms of offensive performance, the Mets rank 18th in MLB this season, while the Giants rank 13th. However, the Mets have struggled in team batting average, ranking 24th, while the Giants have struggled in stolen bases, ranking 29th.

The Mets' best hitter this season has been Pete Alonso, who has recorded 29 runs, 26 RBIs, and 12 home runs with a 0.795 OPS. The Giants' best hitter, Matt Chapman, has notched 34 runs, 27 RBIs, and 8 home runs, along with 5 stolen bases.

Considering the projections, THE BAT X gives the Giants a win probability that is 4% greater than the betting market suggests. This indicates potential value in betting on the Giants.

With a game total of 7.5 runs, this is expected to be a low-scoring game. The Mets have an implied team total of 3.93 runs, while the Giants have a lower implied team total of 3.57 runs. THE BAT X projects the Mets to score 3.82 runs on average, while the Giants are projected to score 4.08 runs on average.

As the game approaches, the betting market favors the Mets with a moneyline of -130 and an implied win probability of 54%. However, THE BAT X projects a 50% win probability for both teams, indicating a close game.

In what promises to be a thrilling matchup, the Mets and Giants will battle it out at Citi Field. Will the Mets overcome their struggles and secure a much-needed victory, or will the Giants continue their solid performance and come out on top? Only time will tell.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Over his previous 3 games started, Jordan Hicks has experienced a sizeable fall off in his fastball velocity: from 94.4 mph over the whole season to 93.1 mph recently.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Despite posting a .397 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes LaMonte Wade Jr. has experienced some positive variance given the .067 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.D. Martinez's 17.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) is in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Harrison Bader hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 68% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 23 games (+8.40 Units / 37% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.17 vs New York Mets 3.72

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