San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 7/2/2025

NL West teams with winning records will square off as the San Francisco Giants face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday night. This game features one of the better pitching matchups of the night in baseball, with both starters having ERAs under 3.50 on the year. Here, I break down that pitching matchup and everything else you need to make an accurate Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction.

Our Giants vs Diamondbacks Pick

  • Pick: Giants moneyline (+111)
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, 2025, 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Starting Pitchers: Landen Roupp (SF) vs Merrill Kelly (AZ)
  • Stadium: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
  • Broadcast: ARID & NBCS‑BA

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Arizona turns to veteran Merrill Kelly (7-4, 3.49 ERA), who has delivered consistent outings this season. For San Francisco, Landen Roupp (6‑5, 3.43 ERA) has been rock‑steady across his starts. Though Arizona boasts a top‑10 strikeout rate, San Francisco’s bullpen is currently second in ERA at 2.93, while Arizona’s pen checks in near the bottom with a 5.27 ERA.

Bullpen usage

The Giants have utilized their bullpen heavily lately. Their setup crew has been dominant, making them a preferred buffer against late comebacks. Arizona’s relief corps is vulnerable and has been taxed during tough starts from members of their rotation.

Recent team streaks

San Francisco is aiming to halt a four‑game skid, while Arizona is looking to maintain the momentum from two straight wins over the Giants. Both clubs are hovering around .500 and they need a win here to help their Wild Card chances.

Best Player Props

PlayerPropLine
Rafael Devers (SF)Home runs1+ (+300)
Merrill Kelly (AZ)StrikeoutsOver 5.5 (-130)
Jung Hoo Lee (SF)Total basesOver 1.5 (+140)
  • Diamondbacks 51.7% win rate as favorites.
  • Giants are 14‑14 as underdogs.
  • Last 10: Arizona 5‑5, Giants 3‑7.

Giants vs Diamondbacks Model Projection

Score Projection: Giants 5 – Diamondbacks 4

Win Probability: Giants 48%, Diamondbacks 52%

Final Thoughts

Despite Arizona’s edge on the mound and their being favored, San Francisco’s top‑tier bullpen, quality pitcher in Roupp, plus a lineup that draws more walks than any team since June, gives them a legitimate path to victory. If Devers finally breaks through and delivers key hits, the Giants have a high floor in their drive to close the NL West gap. We’re backing the Giants moneyline at +111 here.

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Home MLB Picks San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 7/2/2025