San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs Best Bet – 6/17/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: June 17, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on June 17, 2024, at Wrigley Field, both teams find themselves in need of a spark to turn their seasons around. The Cubs, who currently hold a 34-38 record, have been underperforming, while the Giants sit just one game better at 35-37.

On the mound, the Cubs will start right-hander Javier Assad, whose 2.81 ERA over 14 starts might suggest he's having an excellent season. However, a deeper look reveals that his 4.06 xFIP indicates he's been somewhat fortunate and could regress. Assad’s 4-2 win/loss record further masks his struggles with consistency. He's projected to pitch only five innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 1.6 walks, which doesn't bode well for the Cubs.

The Giants counter with Jordan Hicks, also a right-hander, who posts a solid 3.01 ERA over 14 starts. Still, his 3.75 xFIP hints at some luck as well. Hicks, holding a 4-3 record, projects to pitch 4.9 innings, yielding 2.7 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 2.0 walks. While neither pitcher is expected to dominate, Hicks's #51 ranking among MLB starting pitchers—from about 350—gives the Giants a slight edge on the mound compared to Assad's #133 ranking.

Chicago’s offense, ranking 21st overall and 26th in batting average, faces an uphill battle against a Giants bullpen ranked 1st in MLB. The Cubs' lineup has struggled, particularly with power, ranking 20th in home runs. Their best offensive weapon, Christopher Morel, provides some spark with 13 home runs and 40 RBIs this season. On the other hand, the Giants' offense ranks 15th and shows average performance metrics. Matt Chapman leads the charge with solid contributions, and Austin Slater has been red-hot over the last week, boasting a .438 batting average and 1.151 OPS.

Both betting markets and projections expect a close contest. The Cubs are slight favorites with a -120 moneyline, giving them a 52% implied win probability, while the Giants sit at +100 with a 48% implied probability. Notably, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees a slight edge for the Giants, projecting them at a 52% win probability and estimating they will score 5.52 runs on average compared to the Cubs' 5.04 runs.

Overall, while the Cubs are favored, the advanced metrics and projections suggest that the Giants have a better chance to win this matchup. With projected high scoring, it's set to be an intriguing game to watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Extreme groundball hitters like Cody Bellinger are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jordan Hicks.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+7.65 Units / 14% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.52 vs Chicago Cubs 5.04

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