San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 4/30/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 125, Red Sox 1.5 -150
• Money Line: Giants -135, Red Sox 115
• Total (Over/Under): 8

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 55%
• Boston Red Sox - 45%

Projected Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 63.08%
• Boston Red Sox - 36.92%

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 30, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will face off against the San Francisco Giants at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, with a record of 16-13, are having a good season, while the Giants, with a record of 14-15, are below average. This Interleague matchup promises an exciting game between two teams with different levels of success so far.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cooper Criswell, who has had a solid season thus far. Criswell has started three games, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.38. However, his 4.57 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. In contrast, the Giants are projected to start elite right-handed pitcher Logan Webb. Webb has started six games, with a record of 3-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.33. His 3.16 xFIP indicates that he may regress slightly but still maintain a high level of performance.

The Red Sox offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB this season, with a strong batting average. However, their home run and stolen base rankings are average. On the other hand, the Giants offense ranks as the 17th best, with a lower batting average and a weak ranking in stolen bases. Both teams have solid bullpens, with the Giants having the 2nd best bullpen in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Red Sox rank 17th.

In the past week, the Red Sox's best hitter has been Masataka Yoshida, who has recorded five hits, boasting an impressive batting average of .625 and an OPS of 1.417. The Giants' best hitter in the last seven games has been Mike Yastrzemski, who has also recorded five hits, four RBIs, and one home run, with a batting average of .500 and an OPS of 1.300.

Cooper Criswell, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a Giants offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts in MLB. This matchup may give Criswell an advantage, as his strength aligns with the Giants' weakness. However, the Giants have the advantage in terms of starting pitching with Logan Webb's elite performance.

The game total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Red Sox are considered the underdogs with a moneyline of +110, suggesting a 46% implied win probability. The Giants, with a moneyline of -130, have a 54% implied win probability. Based on the current odds, the Red Sox have an average implied team total of 3.81 runs, while the Giants have an average implied team total of 4.19 runs.

As the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X projects a close game between the Red Sox and the Giants. While the Red Sox are having a good season, the Giants' elite pitching and solid bullpen give them the edge in this matchup. With both teams boasting talented hitters, it will be interesting to see how the game unfolds.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Compared to league average, Logan Webb has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 6.1 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jorge Soler is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Cooper Criswell must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 72.9% of the time, grading out in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Connor Wong has been hot in recent games, whalloping 4 dingers in the past two weeks.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Boston Red Sox have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bobby Dalbec, Connor Wong, Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games at home (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 86 games (+24.27 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has only hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 29 games (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Giants vs Red Sox Prediction: Giants 5 - Red Sox 3.55

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