San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 8/26/2025
The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners will continue their three-game series at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night. The Mariners won the opening game of this series and enter the night 1.5 games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West standings. Here, I break down this interleague matchup in Major League Baseball and make my Padres vs Mariners prediction.
Our Padres vs Mariners Pick
- Pick: Mariners Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 26, 2025, 9:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease (SD) vs Luis Castillo (SEA)
- Stadium: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
- Broadcast: ROOT Sports NW, SDPA
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Right-hander Dylan Cease takes the mound for the Padres in this game. Cease has struggled with consistency despite a high strikeout rate of 11.64 K/9. He enters this game with a 6-11 record and a 4.71 ERA. He’ll need to rack up a high strikeout count and limit hard contact to keep the Mariners’ offense at bay.
Opposing Cease is Mariners’ ace Luis Castillo. Castillo is 8–7 with a 3.57 ERA and has been a model of consistency. Castillo has a 4–0 record with a 1.41 ERA and 0.59 WHIP against National League West opponents since joining the Mariners. His ability to control the game with his fastball and slider makes him a tough pitcher to hit consistently.
Key Players
- Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a two-run home run for the Padres last night. The Padres will need him to show up again in this contest.
- Mariners: Cal Raleigh hit his 50th home run of the season for the Mariners last night and he will continue to be a threat for Seattle tonight.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Padres have lost two games in a row and they have fallen back behind the Dodgers in the NL West standings.
- The Mariners have won three of their last four games and are inching closer to the Astros in the AL West.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Manny Machado | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Cal Raleigh | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Dylan Cease | Under 7.5 Strikeouts |
| Luis Castillo | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Mariners have a 4-0 lead in the season series against the Padres.
- Seattle has won every game they’ve played against the Padres this year by three or more runs.
Padres vs Mariners Model Projection
- Score Projection: Padres 4 – Mariners 5
- Win Probability: Padres 47%, Mariners 53%
Final Thoughts
The Mariners are clicking right now both at the plate and on the mound. Luis Castillo should keep that momentum going for the Mariners. Cal Raleigh will make an impact in this game as well and the Mariners should hand the Padres their third loss in a row in one of the games of the night in the majors.
