San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 7/1/2025

With both teams carrying strong records into Citizens Bank Park, Tuesday’s showdown between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies at 6:35 p.m. ET sets the stage for a duel between two quality starters. The Padres (45‑39) will start Nick Pivetta (8‑2, 3.36 ERA), facing off against Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sánchez (6‑2, 2.79 ERA). Here, I make my Padres vs Phillies prediction for Tuesday night.

Our San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 1, 2025 at 6:35 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta (SD) vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Broadcast: NBCS‑PH and SDPA

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Pivetta has posted a solid 3.36 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 91 innings. However, he’s allowed three or more earned in three of his last five starts, and Citizens Bank Park’s friendly dimensions could exacerbate mistakes. Sánchez, on the other hand, has been steadier, with a 2.79 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 103 Ks in 93 IP, and nine of his last ten starts have seen two earned runs or fewer. He’s especially effective at home with a 2.31 ERA at CBP.

Bullpen usage

Both teams have capable relief corps. San Diego’s pen, led by Robert Suárez (23 saves), Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada, has been elite. Philadelphia’s bullpen has looked shaky in high leverage situations at times, but its core arms have delivered when needed.

Recent team streaks

• The Phillies are 50‑35 and 27‑14 at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Padres are 45‑39 but just 20‑25 on the road.
• The Phillies are 24‑8 as moneyline favorites of –165 or more.
• The Padres have gone under in 8 of their last 12 games, while the Phillies have stayed under the total in 7 of their last 8.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Padres are 1‑7 SU in the last 8 vs the Phillies and 2‑6 SU on the road in that span.
• Over/Under trend: under in 6 of Phils’ last 9 vs San Diego, and in 6 of Padres’ last 9 vs NL teams.
• Vs LHP: Padres bat .226 vs lefties, Phillies lineup has more balanced splits.

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Model Projection

Final Thoughts

This one boils down to Sánchez’s consistency, the platoon boosts he gets against SD’s right‑handed power, and the Phillies’ dominance at CBP. Pivetta has been strong this year but has shown vulnerability, especially in hitter‑friendly parks. The under is a decent play here too, but the safer route is backing the home team to win and deliver a result on the moneyline.