San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Prediction – 7/2/2025

Wednesday’s Game 1 between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies is set for 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. With the original July 1 game postponed by rain, both teams shift focus to this early start in what will be a full day of baseball in Philly. The Phillies will start rookie right-hander Mick Abel against veteran righty Nick Pivetta for San Diego. Continue reading to get my Padres vs Phillies Game 1 prediction for Wednesday.

Our Padres vs Phillies Game 1 Pick

• Pick: Under 9 runs (-121)
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
• Bonus Bets For the Game: Click the Claim Bonus button below to claim our exclusive DraftKings Sportsbook bonus to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY, win or lose.

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly

⚾ MLB Parlay Profit Boosts & More

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

⚾ MLB Parlay Profit Boosts & More

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Click To Claim

Claim Bonus
Promo Code: Click To Claim

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly

⚾ MLB Parlay Profit Boosts & More

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Click To Claim

Claim Bonus
Promo Code: Click To Claim

Claim Bonus
Promo Code: Click To Claim

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, 2025, 1:05 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Mick Abel (PHI) vs Nick Pivetta (SD)
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Broadcast: MLB Network

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Mick Abel: Abel debuted for the Phillies on May 18. He owns a 2-1 record with a 3.47 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 23.1 innings of work.
• Nick Pivetta: Pivetta has been strong for the Padres this season, entering this game with a record of 8-2 and a 3.36 ERA. The Padres will hope he can go deep in this game to save their bullpen for Game 2 later in the day.

Bullpen Usage

Both teams will try to get as much as possible from their starters in Game 1 to preserve arms for the second game. The Padres have a solid bullpen (3.67 ERA, top 8 in MLB) but even their quality pen will be tested by the power bats of the Phillies during this twin bill.

Recent Team Streaks

• Phillies won 2 straight at home, including 4-0 Monday night and are 41-24 as favorites this season.
• Padres are 45-39, but just 20-25 on the road. They’ve dropped two straight games.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Phillies have hit the UNDER in 46 of their 85 games (56.8%).
• Phillies are 41-24 as favorites this year.
• Padres are 19-22 (46.3%) as moneyline underdogs.

Padres vs Phillies Game 1 Model Projection

Score Projection: Phillies 4 – Padres 3

Win Probability: Phillies 55%, Padres 45%

Final Thoughts

This Game 1 shapes up as a pitchers’ duel with Pivetta and Abel both demonstrating strong early-season form. Both offenses have cooled lately, and the under has hit frequently for both teams in 2025. We will go the contrarian route here, as the over will likely be a popular play with all of the star power on both sides. The under is the way to play this one in the betting markets.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.