San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 7/23/2025

The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins face off in the rubber match of their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon. Both teams have won close games to open up this series. We could be in for another nail-biter on Wednesday. Here, I break down this National League contest and bring you my Padres vs Marlins prediction for the day.

Our Padres vs Marlins Pick

• Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline
• Confidence: 4 stars
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 23, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease (Padres) vs Sandy Alcantara (Marlins)
• Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• Broadcast: SDPA

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Dylan Cease (Padres): The right-hander has a 3-9 record with a 4.64 ERA this season. Cease has shown the ability to pile up the strikeouts this year. But his consistency has been a concern throughout the 2025 season.
• Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Alcantara enters with a 4-9 record and a 7.14 ERA. He has not looked anything like the pitcher that won a Cy Young award in the past.

Bullpen Usage

• Padres: San Diego’s bullpen boasts a 3.15 ERA. That is the best number in MLB this season.
• Marlins: Miami’s bullpen is not as good as that of the Padres. But they did help the Marlins nail down a one-run win on Tuesday.

Recent Team Streaks

• Padres: San Diego had a two-game winning streak snapped in their last game.
• Marlins: Miami ended a two-game losing streak with their victory over the Padres on Tuesday.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• San Diego leads the season series between these teams 3-2 going into this game.
• This is the final regular season game scheduled between these teams in 2025.
• The under has cashed in the first two games of this three-game series.

Padres vs Marlins Model Projection

• Score Projection: Padres 6 – Marlins 4
• Win Probability: Padres 60.1%, Marlins 39.9%

Final Thoughts

I have not been impressed with Dylan Cease or Sandy Alcantara on the bump this season. But Alcantara has been demonstrably worse than Cease and most other pitchers in baseball. I will fade Alcantara in this game and take the Padres to win this rubber match from South Florida. Cease’s ability to pile up strikeouts should give the Padres a slight edge.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.