San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Pick – 7/22/2025

The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins will renew their hostilities at loanDepot Park in Game 2 of a three‑game set on Tuesday night. The first game ended in a tight 2‑1 win for San Diego. Miami will look to bounce back in what is virtually a pick ’em game. Here, we take a closer look at this National League contest and bring you our Padres vs Marlins prediction for this matchup.

Our Padres vs Marlins Pick

  • Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline
  • Confidence: ★★★★
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins
  • Date & Time: Tuesday, July 22, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Starting Pitchers: Stephen Kolek (3‑4, 4.24 ERA) vs Edward Cabrera (3‑4, 3.61 ERA)
  • Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
  • Broadcast: FDSFL and SDPA

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

Kolek has had mixed results for the Padres this year. He is 3‑4 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He’s typically pitched between 4–7 innings per outing. This marks his first appearance against Miami of 2025. Cabrera is also 3-4 this season but has a slightly better ERA than Kolek does. His control and solid strikeout numbers make him the stronger of the two starters in this contest.

Bullpen Usage

Both bullpens in this matchup should be set up nicely for success in this game. They weren’t pushed too hard in Monday’s series opener and both teams had success shutting the opposition down for the most part. San Diego has the better bullpen ERA for the season but both teams proved yesterday they can get the job done with their relievers.

Recent Team Streaks

  • The Padres have won two games in a row coming into Tuesday’s action.
  • The Marlins have dropped two straight games. Both of those losses came at home.

Best Player Props

PlayerPropPick
Kyle Stowers (MIA)Home runsOver 0.5
Edward Cabrera (MIA)StrikeoutsOver 5.5
Luis Arraez (SD)Total basesOver 1.5
  • The Padres lead the season series against the Marlins by a 2-1 margin.
  • Miami dropped to 22-29 at home with their loss to the Padres on Monday.
  • Miami has covered the runline in 58.6% of their games. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have covered the runline at a higher percentage this year.

Padres vs Marlins Model Projection

Score Projection: Padres 4 – Marlins 5

Win Probability: Padres 46%, Marlins 54%

Final Thoughts

This should be another low‑scoring affair between the Padres and Marlins. Both bullpens should perform well again in this game. But I give a slight edge to the Marlins thanks to Cabrera’s superiority in the starting pitching department compared to Kolek. This game will be close throughout, but I recommend taking the Marlins to win it and to even this series at a game apiece.


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Home MLB Picks San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Pick – 7/22/2025