San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 4/22/2025

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the San Diego Padres in an intriguing interleague matchup at Comerica Park. The Tigers, currently boasting a 14-9 record, are enjoying a strong start to their season, while the Padres lead with a 16-7 record, marking both teams as solid contenders thus far. Both clubs are coming off impressive performances, with the Tigers having taken the first game of this series 6-4.

The pitching matchup features two right-handers: Jack Flaherty for the Tigers and Nick Pivetta for the Padres. Flaherty ranks as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB with a stellar 2.53 ERA, though his 3.58 xFIP indicates he might have been a bit fortunate so far this season. He has recorded a solid strikeout rate of 28.7%, which could be put to the test against a Padres lineup that strikes out the least in MLB.

On the other hand, Nick Pivetta has been exceptional this season, boasting a 1.57 ERA and ranking 71st among starters. His 27.9% strikeout rate presents a favorable matchup against the Tigers, who rank 5th in MLB for strikeouts. The projections suggest that both pitchers could allow around 2 to 2.3 earned runs, contributing to a potentially low-scoring affair, as seen with a game total set at only 7.5 runs.

Offensively, the Padres rank 4th in MLB, highlighted by their 1st place batting average. In contrast, although the Tigers' offense is ranked 14th overall, they struggle significantly with a 29th ranking in stolen bases. With both bullpens sitting comfortably in the top 5 of MLB Power Rankings, this game is shaping up to be a tightly contested battle. The moneyline odds reflect a close matchup, which hinges on the performance of these two pitchers.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

There has been a decrease in Jose Iglesias's average exit velocity this year, from 85.8 mph last year to 82.3 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing hitters in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Batters such as Javier Baez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.25 Units / 65% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.68, Detroit Tigers 3.62

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

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