San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 6/1/2024

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 1, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
  • Alec Marsh - Royals

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On June 1, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the San Diego Padres at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a record of 35-24 this season, have been having a great season and will be looking to continue their success as the home team. The Padres, with a record of 31-29, are having an above-average season and will be the away team in this interleague matchup.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Alec Marsh, who has started 9 games this year. Marsh has a win/loss record of 4-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.24. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Marsh is ranked as the #254 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. This suggests that he is one of the worst pitchers in MLB and may not perform as well going forward.

On the other hand, the Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Musgrove. Musgrove has started 10 games this year and has a win/loss record of 3-4. His ERA of 5.66 is not as impressive, but according to our Power Rankings, Musgrove is ranked as the #62 best starting pitcher in MLB. This indicates that he is above average and may perform better in future games.

In terms of offense, the Royals rank as the #8 best team in MLB this season. They have an average team batting average ranking of #19, but excel in stolen bases, ranking #4 in MLB. The Padres, on the other hand, rank as the #9 best team in MLB. They have a lower team batting average ranking of #20, but perform well in home runs, ranking #10 in MLB.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Royals are ranked as the #27 best bullpen in MLB, while the Padres have the #7 best bullpen. This suggests that the Padres may have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Royals have an average implied team total of 4.20 runs, while the Padres have a higher implied team total of 4.30 runs. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating that it is expected to be an average-scoring game.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup between the Royals and the Padres. The Royals' strong offense and home-field advantage may give them an edge, but the Padres' above-average pitching and bullpen could make it a competitive game. Keep an eye on Alec Marsh and Joe Musgrove as they take the mound, as their performances will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove's slider utilization has increased by 7.6% from last year to this one (14.5% to 22.1%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Manny Machado's quickness has dropped off this year. His 26.25 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.78 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Alec Marsh's 2506-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 93rd percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

San Diego's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Maikel Garcia, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 36 games (+13.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+9.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+9.30 Units / 44% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.63 vs Kansas City Royals 4.54

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.