Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 9/12/2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to open a three-game set against the Washington Nationals on Friday at Nationals Park. Both teams enter this game on losing streaks and will try to turn things around against another struggling National League team. Here, I take a closer look at this matchup between these two teams and bring you my Pirates vs Nationals prediction.

Our Pirates vs Nationals Pick

• Pick: Under 7.5
• Confidence: 3/5
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4.8/5

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Game Snapshot

• Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals
• Date & Time: Friday, September 12, 6:45 pm ET
• Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs Brad Lord
• Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
• Broadcast: MLB.TV

Key Storylines

• The Pirates come into this game on a six-game losing streak. They are still mathematically alive in the NL Wild Card race. But it would take a miracle for Pittsburgh to work their way back into contention based on how they have been playing.
• The Nationals are also nearing the point of elimination from playoff contention. The Nats will at least try to catch up to the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings before the end of the season to try and avoid last place in the division.

Pitching outlook

• Mitch Keller will get the start for the Pirates in this game. Keller has a brutal 6-14 record so far this season. His individual numbers have not been as bad as his record would suggest. Keller’s given up just under a hit per inning and certainly has to like his chances against a Nationals team that routinely struggles offensively.
• Washington is going to go with Brad Lord on the mound in this contest. Lord has numbers similar to Keller over a smaller sample size. He is coming off a strong start in his last game when he allowed just one run in 5.2 innings of work against the Chicago Cubs.

Recent team streaks

• Pittsburgh has dropped six games in a row coming into this series opener against the Nats.
• Washington has lost their last two games to the Miami Marlins prior to this game.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Pirates lead the season series 3-1 over the Nationals entering Friday.
• Pittsburgh is 22-50 on the road this season.
• Washington is 29-42 at home in 2025.

Pirates vs Nationals Model Projection

Score Projection: Pirates 4 – Nationals 3

Win Probability: Pirates 58%, Nationals 42%

Final Thoughts

I think we are in for a close game here from Nationals Park. I also think we are in for a low-scoring game in this contest. Both offenses are so inconsistent and it is hard to see them breaking out in a meaningful way against competent starting pitching. I’ll take the under in this game between two of the three worst teams in the National League.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.