Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Preview – 4/11/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 11, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jared Jones - Pirates
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
• Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -165, Phillies -1.5 140
• Money Line: Pirates 125, Phillies -150
• Total (Over/Under):9 100

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 43%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 38.06%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 61.94%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in an all-Pennsylvania MLB matchup on April 11, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. As the home team, the Phillies will look to improve their 6-6 record this season, while the Pirates aim to continue their impressive 9-3 start.

The Phillies will send left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez to the mound, while the Pirates will counter with right-handed pitcher Jared Jones. Suarez, ranked as the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started two games this year, boasting a 1-0 record with a 4.09 ERA. Despite his ERA, Suarez's 2.69 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other hand, Jones, an average pitcher according to our rankings, has started two games, with a 1-1 record and a 3.86 ERA.

The Phillies' offense ranks as the 20th best in MLB this season, but they excel in team batting average, ranking 8th in the league. Their home run and stolen base rankings are average, sitting at 16th and 10th, respectively. Meanwhile, the Pirates' offense is off to a strong start, ranking 6th in MLB. However, their team batting average is a weak point, ranking 26th in the league.

In terms of pitching, the Phillies' bullpen ranks 16th best in MLB, while the Pirates boast the 3rd best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could be a crucial factor in the game.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 57%. The Pirates, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%. The Phillies have a high implied team total of 4.87 runs, while the Pirates' implied team total is 4.13 runs.

The Game Total for today's matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game.

With the Phillies being the favorites, the Pirates will look to defy the odds and continue their strong season. It will be an exciting National League matchup that could have significant implications for both teams.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jared Jones has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Oneil Cruz usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Projected catcher Henry Davis projects as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With 8 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Ranger Suarez encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Batting from the opposite that Jared Jones throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 116 games (+11.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 139 games (+15.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+4.30 Units / 143% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.95 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.82

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