Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/14/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Undecided - Pirates
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 14, 2024, at Coors Field, both teams hope to turn their seasons around. The Rockies, sitting at a disappointing 24-44, are having a terrible season. The Pirates aren't faring much better, with a below-average 32-36 record. This National League matchup features two of the league’s struggling squads, but it still offers intriguing betting angles.

Ryan Feltner will take the mound for the Rockies, coming into this game with a 1-5 record and a concerning 5.74 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his 4.01 xFIP. Despite his struggles, Feltner might find some success against a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in MLB and has the 4th most strikeouts in the league. His low strikeout rate (19.2%) could be mitigated by Pittsburgh's tendency to whiff.

On the flip side, the Pirates have yet to choose who will start this game on the mound. Whoever does get the start faces a Rockies lineup that has shown flashes of competence, ranking 11th in team batting average but lagging at 26th in home runs. The Rockies' propensity to strike out (5th most in MLB) could prove beneficial for whoever gets the ball here.

The Rockies' bullpen is among the league’s worst, ranking 25th in advanced-stat Power Rankings, which could spell trouble if Feltner exits early. The Pirates’ bullpen, however, is more reliable at 13th, offering them a potential late-game advantage.

Offensively, Ezequiel Tovar has been a bright spot for Colorado, racking up 8 hits, 3 home runs, and 8 RBIs over his last 6 games with a 1.112 OPS. Rowdy Tellez has been equally impressive for Pittsburgh, boasting a .417 batting average and 1.250 OPS in his last 4 games.

Given the Rockies’ poor season and the Pirates’ slightly better, yet still below-average performance, this game could be an opportunity for bettors to exploit the underlying metrics and recent player performances. While Feltner’s record and ERA look bleak, his xFIP suggests he might be due for better results, particularly against a strikeout-prone Pirates lineup.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jack Suwinski has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jared Triolo, Jack Suwinski, Michael A. Taylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Ryan Feltner will record an average of 2.95 earned runs today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

This season, there has been a decline in Brenton Doyle's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.9 ft/sec last year to 29.18 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 44 games (+8.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Yasmani Grandal has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 52% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.63 vs Colorado Rockies 5.56

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