Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Prediction – 6/14/2024
Updated October 27, 2026
Updated October 27, 2026
The Boston Celtics entered Game 4 of the 2024 NBA Finals with a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Dallas Mavericks. One more victory would give Boston its 18th championship and complete a Finals sweep.
Dallas, meanwhile, faced elimination on its home court. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving needed a much stronger performance after three consecutive losses, particularly following a frustrating Game 3 in which Doncic fouled out during the fourth quarter.
The betting market expected another close contest, with the spread sitting around one point. However, the original ATS.io model projected Dallas to win by approximately six points, giving the Mavericks a 68% probability of victory.
That projection correctly identified the winning team, although the actual result was far more decisive. Dallas defeated Boston 122-84, extending the series to Game 5.
This historical preview preserves the original June 14, 2024 betting odds and model projections, alongside a review of the final result.
Game information | Details |
|---|---|
Matchup | Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks |
Competition | 2024 NBA Finals, Game 4 |
Date | Friday, June 14, 2024 |
Tipoff | 8:30 PM ET |
Venue | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
Series entering Game 4 | Boston led 3-0 |
Original ATS.io model favorite | Dallas Mavericks |
Final score | Dallas 122, Boston 84 |
Series after Game 4 | Boston led 3-1 |
Dallas entered Game 4 needing to avoid becoming the first team eliminated in the 2024 Finals.
Boston had already won two games at TD Garden and followed those victories with a 106-99 road win in Game 3.
The Celtics had an opportunity to complete the sweep, while the Mavericks were playing to keep their championship hopes alive.
The original ATS.io page listed the following betting lines.
Betting market | Historical odds |
|---|---|
Point spread | Boston -1 (-110), Dallas +1 (-110) |
Moneyline | Boston -110, Dallas -110 |
Over/Under | 211.5 points |
These are archived pregame odds, not current betting lines.
The original preview also referenced a slightly different market snapshot, with Dallas -1, Dallas -115 on the moneyline, and Boston -105.
That difference reflects the odds snapshots appearing in the archived article. Both showed a game priced close to a pick'em, with Dallas receiving a slight edge in one snapshot.
For a matchup involving a team leading the Finals 3-0, that was a notable assessment of the home team's chances.
A one-point spread indicated that sportsbooks expected a highly competitive game.
Boston had dominated the series results, but Dallas was still respected at home.
The Mavericks had won 33 of their previous 50 games, according to the original preview, and had enough individual talent to challenge the Celtics.
Boston's strong record and postseason consistency made the Celtics a difficult team to oppose, particularly after winning the first three games.
The central betting question was whether Dallas could produce a complete performance after several costly stretches earlier in the series.
The original ATS.io model was considerably more optimistic about Dallas than the betting market.
Team | Implied win probability | ATS.io projected win probability |
|---|---|---|
Boston Celtics | 50% | 32% |
Dallas Mavericks | 50% | 68% |
The model gave Dallas a 68% chance of winning Game 4, compared with 32% for Boston.
This was an 18-percentage-point difference between the model's Dallas projection and the normalized 50% market assessment.
Implied win probability represents the likelihood of a result suggested by sportsbook odds.
The archived page displayed 50% for each team, reflecting a simplified, normalized interpretation of its -110/-110 moneyline. A raw -110 price actually implies approximately 52.4% before removing the bookmaker's margin.
Projected win probability is ATS.io's model estimate based on its statistical evaluation of the matchup.
The original model identified Dallas as the more likely winner despite Boston's 3-0 series lead.
That distinction is important. The market priced the game as nearly even, while the ATS.io projection favored Dallas substantially.
The Celtics arrived in Dallas having won 79 of their 99 combined regular-season and playoff games, according to the original ATS.io preview.
Boston had controlled the Finals through its defense, depth, and ability to respond whenever Dallas threatened to take control.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown provided the primary scoring options, while Jrue Holiday and Derrick White gave the Celtics an experienced defensive backcourt.
The Mavericks had struggled to produce enough consistent offense through the first three games.
Doncic and Irving remained dangerous, but Boston had repeatedly limited the contributions of Dallas' supporting players.
Game 4 presented several important questions.
Could Doncic avoid the foul trouble that hurt Dallas in Game 3? Would Irving continue improving after his difficult opening games? And could the Mavericks defend Boston's perimeter attack without giving up easy baskets inside?
Kristaps Porzingis' availability was another major consideration.
The Celtics center had missed Game 3, and his status remained uncertain entering Game 4.
Boston had established control of the series with three consecutive victories.
The Celtics won Game 1 by 18 points, followed by a seven-point victory in Game 2.
Game 3 was closer, but Boston held on for a 106-99 win despite a late Dallas comeback.
That performance demonstrated the Celtics' ability to survive difficult stretches without losing their composure.
Brown had been especially effective throughout the series, contributing scoring and strong defense against Doncic.
Tatum continued to influence games through his playmaking, rebounding, and ability to attract defensive attention.
Boston's backcourt was another advantage.
Holiday and White made life difficult for Dallas' guards while providing dependable offensive contributions.
The Celtics had multiple ways to win, making them a particularly challenging opponent in a seven-game series.
Porzingis had played an important role earlier in the Finals, particularly in Game 1.
His rim protection and outside shooting gave Boston additional flexibility on both ends of the court.
However, he missed Game 3 because of a left leg injury.
His availability was a significant question entering Game 4.
Boston had already shown it could win without him, but his absence reduced its frontcourt depth.
Porzingis ultimately did not play in Game 4.
Dallas entered Game 4 with its season on the line.
The Mavericks had struggled against Boston's defense, which repeatedly forced difficult shots and limited their offensive options.
Doncic remained the team's leading scorer and primary playmaker.
However, his Game 3 foul-out had been a costly development.
Dallas had cut a substantial Boston lead to a manageable deficit before Doncic picked up his sixth foul with just over four minutes remaining.
The Mavericks could not complete the comeback without him.
Avoiding unnecessary fouls and maintaining defensive discipline were obvious priorities for Game 4.
Doncic had carried a heavy offensive workload throughout the postseason.
His ability to score, rebound, and create opportunities for teammates made him Dallas' most important player.
Boston had repeatedly challenged him defensively, using physical coverage and different matchups to make scoring difficult.
Game 4 required Doncic to remain aggressive without becoming frustrated.
He also needed more consistent contributions from the rest of the roster.
Dallas could not depend entirely on difficult individual shots against Boston's defense.
Irving had struggled in the opening two games in Boston.
His shooting improved considerably in Game 3, when he scored 35 points.
That performance gave Dallas encouragement heading into another home game.
Irving's ability to create offense alongside Doncic was essential.
When both guards played well, the Mavericks had enough scoring to compete with almost any opponent.
Dallas needed another strong Irving performance to avoid elimination.
The Mavericks had relied heavily on Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II throughout their playoff run.
Both provided rim protection, rebounding, and finishing around the basket.
Against Boston, those contributions were especially important.
The Celtics' ability to spread the floor often forced opposing centers into difficult defensive decisions.
Dallas needed to control the glass and generate additional possessions through offensive rebounds.
Lively ultimately became one of the most influential players in Game 4.
The original ATS.io model projected the following score:
<box border radius="lg" padding={3} gap={2}>
<text color="secondary" weight="medium" size="xs">ORIGINAL ATS.IO MODEL PROJECTION</text>
<grid columns={2} gap={2}>
<grid-item>
<text color="secondary" size="xs">Boston Celtics</text>
<title size="2xl" color="default" tabularNums>100.17</title>
</grid-item>
<grid-item>
<text color="secondary" size="xs">Dallas Mavericks</text>
<title size="2xl" color="default" tabularNums>106.39</title>
</grid-item>
</grid>
**Projected winner: Dallas Mavericks**
Projected margin: Dallas by 6.22 points
Projected combined score: 206.56 points
</box>
The model favored Dallas despite Boston entering the game with a 3-0 series lead.
Its projected total of 206.56 points was also below the archived Over/Under line of 211.5.
These projections suggested potential value on Dallas and the Under.
However, the archived article does not identify an official ATS.io spread, moneyline, or total bet. The model projection should therefore be distinguished from a published betting selection.
Dallas delivered its best performance of the Finals when it mattered most.
The Mavericks defeated Boston 122-84, avoiding elimination and forcing Game 5.
The 38-point victory was the third-largest winning margin in NBA Finals history at the time.
Dallas controlled the game almost immediately.
The Mavericks led 34-21 after the opening quarter and extended their advantage to 61-35 by halftime.
Boston never recovered.
Dallas continued pulling away in the third quarter, eventually building a lead large enough for both teams to rest their starters.
Quarter | Boston | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
First | 21 | 34 |
Second | 14 | 27 |
Third | 25 | 31 |
Fourth | 24 | 30 |
Final | 84 | 122 |
Dallas outscored Boston in every quarter.
The Mavericks' 26-point halftime lead effectively decided the contest.
Boston struggled offensively throughout the first half, scoring just 35 points before the break.
The Celtics shot poorly, failed to generate consistent scoring opportunities, and could not contain Dallas' offense.
The result ended Boston's opportunity to complete a Finals sweep.
Doncic responded to his Game 3 foul-out with a much stronger performance.
He scored 29 points in just over 32 minutes, including 25 in the first half.
The Mavericks' star attacked Boston's defense aggressively and helped Dallas establish a commanding early lead.
Statistic | Total |
|---|---|
Points | 29 |
Rebounds | 5 |
Assists | 5 |
Steals | 3 |
Field goals | 12-for-26 |
Three-pointers | 0-for-8 |
Free throws | 5-for-7 |
Doncic's scoring was particularly impressive considering he missed all eight of his three-point attempts.
He repeatedly found ways to score inside the arc, using his footwork and ability to create space.
His three steals also reflected a more productive defensive performance.
Dallas was considerably more effective when Doncic attacked the basket rather than relying exclusively on perimeter shots.
Irving followed his 35-point performance in Game 3 with another strong offensive showing.
He scored 21 points on 10-of-18 shooting and recorded six assists.
Irving helped Dallas maintain its offensive rhythm alongside Doncic.
His ability to score efficiently reduced the pressure on his backcourt partner.
The Mavericks' two stars combined for 50 points.
That production was especially valuable because Dallas also received important contributions elsewhere in its rotation.
Lively provided one of the game's most important performances.
The rookie center finished with 11 points and 12 rebounds, including seven offensive boards.
His work on the glass helped Dallas create additional scoring opportunities.
Lively also made the first three-pointer of his NBA career.
That shot was an unexpected contribution, but his rebounding was even more significant.
Dallas finished with 52 rebounds compared with Boston's 31.
The Mavericks controlled the interior and repeatedly punished the Celtics for failing to secure defensive rebounds.
Lively's performance was a major reason for that advantage.
Boston's offense produced its worst performance of the Finals.
The Celtics shot just 36.3% from the field and scored 84 points.
Tatum led Boston with 15 points, while Brown finished with 10.
Holiday also scored 10, but Boston's starting lineup struggled to generate consistent offense.
Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
Jayson Tatum | 15 | 5 | 3 |
Sam Hauser | 14 | 4 | 0 |
Payton Pritchard | 11 | 3 | 3 |
Jaylen Brown | 10 | 1 | 2 |
Jrue Holiday | 10 | 3 | 2 |
Tatum shot 4-of-10 from the field.
Brown made just three of his 12 attempts.
Boston's two leading stars combined for 25 points, half the total produced by Doncic and Irving.
The Celtics also committed 14 turnovers while recording only 18 assists.
Their offense lacked the movement and efficiency that had been central to their success throughout the postseason.
Statistic | Boston | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
Points | 84 | 122 |
Field goal percentage | 36.3% | 50.5% |
Three-point percentage | 34.1% | 40.5% |
Three-pointers made | 14 | 15 |
Rebounds | 31 | 52 |
Offensive rebounds | 4 | 13 |
Assists | 18 | 21 |
Turnovers | 14 | 9 |
Steals | 2 | 7 |
Dallas held substantial advantages in shooting efficiency, rebounding, and ball security.
The rebounding difference was especially striking.
The Mavericks collected 21 more rebounds and nine more offensive rebounds than Boston.
That helped Dallas attempt 91 field goals compared with 80 for the Celtics.
The Mavericks also committed five fewer turnovers.
Boston's defensive structure had been effective throughout the first three games, but Dallas found much better scoring opportunities in Game 4.
The original model projected Dallas to win 106.39-100.17.
The Mavericks won 122-84.
That means the model correctly projected the winner but underestimated the margin of victory.
Metric | ATS.io projection | Actual result |
|---|---|---|
Boston points | 100.17 | 84 |
Dallas points | 106.39 | 122 |
Dallas winning margin | 6.22 | 38 |
Combined points | 206.56 | 206 |
Winning team | Dallas | Dallas |
Interestingly, the model's combined-score projection was exceptionally close to the actual total.
It projected 206.56 points, while the game finished with 206.
The projected team scores were much less accurate, with Dallas scoring well above expectations and Boston falling significantly short.
Yes.
Dallas won by 38 points.
Against the archived one-point spread, the Mavericks covered comfortably.
The Mavericks also won outright, meaning a Dallas moneyline wager would have been successful.
The archived total was 211.5 points.
The final combined score was 206.
Under 211.5 won by 5.5 points.
The ATS.io model had projected 206.56 total points, making its original total projection very close to the final result.
The archived page contains a Dallas win projection and projected score.
It does not show a separately labeled official bet.
For historical recordkeeping, Dallas' victory should be classified as a correct model winner projection, rather than an officially documented betting pick.
The model's implied Dallas spread and total lean also aligned with the winning outcomes, but those should not be added to a published pick record without evidence of an original selection.
Dallas' victory extended the NBA Finals to Game 5.
However, the Mavericks could not complete the comeback.
Boston returned home and defeated Dallas 106-88 on June 17, 2024.
The Celtics won the series 4-1 and secured the franchise's 18th NBA championship.
Jaylen Brown was named Finals MVP.
Game 4 ultimately proved to be Dallas' only victory of the series.
Although the Mavericks produced a dominant performance, Boston responded in the next game and completed its championship run.
Dallas defeated Boston 122-84 at American Airlines Center.
The ATS.io model projected Dallas to beat Boston 106.39-100.17.
The model assigned Dallas a 68% probability of winning Game 4.
The archived page listed Boston -1 (-110), Dallas +1 (-110), a 211.5-point total, and -110 moneyline odds for both teams. Its preview also included a slightly different odds snapshot.
Yes. Dallas won by 38 points and covered the archived one-point spread.
Under 211.5 won. The teams combined for 206 points.
Doncic scored 29 points, including 25 in the first half.
Irving finished with 21 points and six assists.
Jayson Tatum led Boston with 15 points.
Porzingis did not play because of a leg injury.
Dallas led Boston 61-35 at halftime.
Boston won the series 4-1. Dallas' Game 4 victory prevented a sweep but did not change the eventual champion.
Dallas entered Game 4 facing elimination and responded with its strongest performance of the Finals.
Doncic scored 29 points, Irving added 21, and Lively helped the Mavericks dominate the glass.
Boston struggled offensively, shooting just 36.3% and scoring only 84 points.
The original ATS.io model projected Dallas as the winner despite Boston's 3-0 series lead.
That projection proved correct.
Its estimated 206.56 combined points also came remarkably close to the actual total of 206.
→ Our Take: The ATS.io model correctly favored Dallas in Game 4, identifying a stronger chance of a Mavericks victory than the betting market suggested. The 122-84 result was far more decisive than projected, but the model's assessment of the winner and combined score held up well. Dallas covered the spread, and Under 211.5 was successful, although the archived article did not record either as an official ATS.io pick.
For more historical predictions and current matchup analysis, visit our NBA picks and NBA matchup predictions.
