The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds will battle in NL Central competition on Wednesday night. The Reds are in desperate need of wins in the National League Wild Card race. But they will go up against the great Paul Skenes of the Pirates in this contest. Can the Reds overcome that challenge to get a key victory at home? Continue reading to get my Pirates vs Reds prediction for Wednesday.
Our Pirates vs Reds Pick
- Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 24, 2025, 6:40 p.m. EDT
- Starting Pitchers:
- Pirates: Paul Skenes (10–10, 2.03 ERA)
- Reds: Hunter Greene (7–4, 2.74 ERA)
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
This is set to be a great pitching matchup. Paul Skenes has had a brilliant 2025, anchoring Pittsburgh’s staff with his elite strikeout rates and 2.03 ERA. He’s clearly capable of dominating even in the toughest environments. But the question around Skenes’ starts is always whether or not the Pirates can score enough runs to win those games.
For the Reds, Hunter Greene offers similarly high upside. Greene has electric stuff, solid command, and the ability to generate swings-and-misses. If Greene can limit mistakes, he gives Cincinnati a very strong chance at home. The difference may come down to bullpen performance in the late innings.
Recent team streaks
- Pirates are riding a small hot streak, having won three in a row heading into today. They’ll try to extend that streak and play spoiler against their division rivals.
- The Reds had an extended winning streak snapped in their last game and they will look to bounce back tonight.
- Cincinnati is a game back of the New York Mets in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot entering this game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Strikeouts | Over 7.5 Ks |
| Hunter Greene | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 Ks |
| Elly De La Cruz | Total Bases | Over 1.5 TB |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Reds hold a 6-5 lead in their season series against the Pirates this year.
- The first game of this three-game series stayed under the total on Tuesday. There were six total runs scored in that game.
- The total for this game is set at 6.5 runs. The expectation is that both starting pitchers will dominate.
Pirates vs Reds Model Projection
Score Projection: Pirates 3 – Reds 4
Win Probability: Pirates 42%, Reds 58%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be a tight, low-scoring duel where both teams will have to manufacture runs against very good starting pitching. Skenes gives Pittsburgh an edge in starting pitching quality, but I lean toward Cincinnati to win the game thanks to their advantages everywhere else. Look for the Reds to keep the pressure on the Mets by defeating Skenes and getting the win here.
