Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 4/12/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 12, 2025, both teams find themselves mired in a disappointing start to the season, with Cincinnati at 6-8 and Pittsburgh at 5-9. This National League Central matchup is critical for both squads as they look to gain momentum early in the year. In their previous game, the Reds got a win and will look for another one here.

The Reds are projected to start Andrew Abbott, who ranks as the 148th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. While Abbott's projections show an average outing with roughly 5.4 innings pitched and a concerning 4.7 hits allowed, he is still expected to strike out about 5.4 batters. However, his tendency to issue 1.9 walks could be a liability against a Pirates lineup that has been showing some signs of life.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with Andrew Heaney, who has been labeled a bad pitcher by MLB standards. Heaney's projections suggest he will pitch an average of 5.1 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs. His struggles with hits (projected at 4.9) and walks (1.8) could provide the Reds' offense an opportunity to capitalize.

With both teams desperate for a win, this matchup could be pivotal. The Reds may have the edge, especially with their home-field advantage at Great American Ball Park. However, both teams will need to overcome their early-season struggles to secure a much-needed victory.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

With a 1.36 gap between Andrew Abbott's 3.72 ERA and his 5.08 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and ought to see negative regression in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.42, Cincinnati Reds 4.68

• Date: April 12, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

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