Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/17/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

In a National League Central matchup, the Chicago Cubs will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on May 17, 2024. The Cubs, with a season record of 25-20, are having a good season so far, while the Pirates, with a record of 20-25, are struggling in what can be considered a bad season.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has had a tough season thus far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hendricks is ranked as the #198 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes, who is ranked as the #32 best starting pitcher in MLB. This suggests that Skenes is a strong pitcher.

Hendricks has started six games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 10.04, which is considered horrible. However, his 4.47 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) is 5.57 points lower than his ERA, indicating that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Skenes has started one game this year, with an ERA of 6.75, which is also considered horrible. However, his 2.94 xFIP is 3.81 points lower than his ERA, suggesting that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future.

The Cubs offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB this season, while the Pirates offense ranks as the 28th best. The Cubs have a strong batting average and stolen base ranking, while the Pirates struggle in these areas.

In their last game, the Cubs lost to the Pirates by a score of 5-4. The Cubs had a closing Moneyline price of -125, indicating that they were favored to win the game. However, the Pirates pulled off the upset with a closing Moneyline price of +105.

Considering the projections and the recent performance, this game is expected to be a close one. THE BAT X projects the Pirates to have a slightly higher win probability at 51%, while the Cubs have a win probability of 49%.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an average implied team total of 4.00 runs for this game. THE BAT X projects the Cubs to score an average of 3.96 runs, while the Pirates are projected to score 4.25 runs.

It's important to note that Paul Skenes, the Pirates' starting pitcher, has struggled with control, with a high-walk rate of 10.0%. This could give the patient Cubs offense, which ranks third in walks in MLB, an advantage in drawing walks.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the struggling Cubs' offense and the strong Pirates' pitching. With both teams having a similar win probability, it should be an exciting and closely contested game at Wrigley Field.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Among every team today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

When it comes to his batting average, Bryan Reynolds has had bad variance on his side this year. His .250 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .322.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Generating 13 outs per GS this year on average, Kyle Hendricks falls in the 11th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Nico Hoerner's 1.7% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) grades out in the 3rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 games at home (+16.90 Units / 141% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.3 vs Chicago Cubs 4.05

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