Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 5/26/2025

On May 26, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Chase Field in a matchup that has significant implications for both teams. Currently, the Diamondbacks hold a record of 26-27, marking an average season, while the Pirates sit at a dismal 19-35, solidifying their status as one of the weakest teams in the league. The Diamondbacks are looking to build on a strong offensive performance that ranks as the 4th best in MLB, driven by their ability to generate runs and hit home runs.

Arizona’s Ryne Nelson is projected to start, coming off a fairly average season with a 4.60 ERA and a Power Rankings slot of 116th among starting pitchers. Despite his average showing, the projections suggest he may perform better than his numbers indicate due to an xFIP that is lower than his ERA. However, he faces a tough challenge against Pirates’ Andrew Heaney, who, despite being ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB, has managed a solid 2.91 ERA this season, though projections point to him likely regressing.

With Arizona's robust hitting line-up against a faltering Pirates team, the Diamondbacks are significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -185 and an implied team total of 5.14 runs. The game total sits at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair, particularly given the D-Backs' offensive capabilities. If Arizona can exploit Pittsburgh’s weaknesses, they stand a strong chance to secure a victory in this opening game of the series.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney's four-seam fastball percentage has fallen by 5.6% from last season to this one (49.9% to 44.3%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's 95.3-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 79th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Corbin Carroll has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last year's 89.2-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Josh Naylor is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.6% rate (78th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.85 Units / 30% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.6, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.69

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.