Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 4/13/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 13, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marco Gonzales - Pirates
  • Spencer Turnbull - Phillies
• Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -160, Phillies -1.5 135
• Money Line: Pirates 130, Phillies -150
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 42%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 58%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 38.7%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 61.3%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting National League matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park on April 13, 2024. The Phillies, with a record of 7-7, are having an average season so far, while the Pirates boast an impressive 10-4 record, making it a great season for them.

The Phillies will be the home team, looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Spencer Turnbull, who has had a solid start to the season. Turnbull has started two games, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an excellent ERA of 0.00. However, his 2.17 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Pirates will send left-handed pitcher Marco Gonzales to the mound. Gonzales has also started two games this season, with a win/loss record of 0-0 and an impressive ERA of 2.45. However, his 4.36 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in performance going forward.

The Phillies offense ranks as the 21st best in MLB this season, while the Pirates offense is ranked 10th. The Phillies have shown strength in team batting average, ranking 8th in the league, while the Pirates have struggled in team batting average, ranking 26th. Both teams have an average ranking in team home runs, with the Phillies ranked 16th and the Pirates ranked 23rd. However, the Phillies have an advantage in stolen bases, ranking 10th compared to the Pirates' 12th ranking.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. The Pirates, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Marco Gonzales in the 7th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Bryan Reynolds's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 81.6-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 75-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Henry Davis, the Pirates's expected catcher in today's game, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Harper as the 16th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average skill.

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction: Pirates 4.06 - Phillies 4.92

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